5 clear signals that will prove if the Bitcoin bull run is still alive

Crypto Twitter is full of claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin”, from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and even banks.

However, despite the narratives of the accumulation, the price of Bitcoin suddenly broke, broke below key levels since ETF flows have turned negative.

The contradiction between bullish headlines and falling prices highlights a crucial point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flow, who is indeed buy, and when, matters much more than who says they are.

Bitcoin fell for $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative for four consecutive sessions. The change came as BlackRock’s IBIT recorded redemptions over the past four days, totaling $714.8 million, removing a significant source of daily demand just as a widely watched cycle pivot gave way.

According to Farside Investorsthe outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and then $186.5 million coincide with the break. They forced the sale by authorized participants who redeemed the shares for the underlying Bitcoin and dumped them on the market.

Thus, the net flow has reversed. As slow creations and redemptions grow in the complex U.S. spot ETF, the daily supply that helped absorb volatility turns into a source of supply.

Mid-October saw net outflows in digital asset funds as Bitcoin took a hit stay above $106,400. While there were brief days of flow at the end of the month, the most recent run has tilted into the red, a pattern that aligns with the IBIT prints captured above.

The mechanical impact matters because ETF flow translates into spot buying or selling, and the timing overlaps with a level break that many traders use to distinguish a late-cycle pullback from a trend reversal.

Derivatives add pressure.

CME’s three-month futures premium has fallen to about 4 to 5 percent annualized over the middle of the year, curbing commercial freight incentives that draw institutional base demand into rallies.

At the same time, financing on perpetual swaps has become softer or negative at points, an installation that accelerates movements when the long de-risk and liquidations cluster.

Under these conditions, the slow and planned accumulation of spots by corporations or sovereign entities does not compensate for forced encounters on leverage or redemptions of regulated products that translate directly into spot sales.

Macro did not ease the way. The US Dollar Index rebounded towards the 98-100 area in November after a weak first half, while the US 10-year yield, close to 4.1 percent, kept real rates restrictive.

A firmer dollar and tight real yields tend to compress global liquidity and weigh on long-term risk, and bitcoin continues to respond to those impulses on tactical horizons. When flows are roughly flat, the dollar often decides whether to stay or fade away.

Supply narratives also persist. The rehabilitation timeline of Mt. Gox was extended returns to October 31, 2026, after partial distributions earlier this year, which keeps a recurring overhang in focus, even if actual sales are exceeded.

Periodic trustee updates and wallet movements have repeatedly tightened the risk tolerance on rebounds. The miners stop another valve.

The post-halving economy has also left the hashprice close the lows of the cycle relative to the spring spike. That backdrop creates ongoing incentives for Treasury monetization in times of stress, which can align with soft financing to add procyclical pressure.

The framing of the cycle links these pieces.

I recently called $126,000 as high cycle and $106,400 as the bull-bear pivot.

The price just lost that pivot as the ETF offering turned into a net sale, while the base was subdued and funding cooled.

Interestingly, common monitors on the chain and cycle, such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL, have failed to reach euphoria this cycle, even close to the highs. The metric is already slipping towards the distribution and mean reversion as the flow support is cleared.

This could it means that the bull run will be extended this cycle, or it could represent diminishing returns compared to the transitions of the previous cycle.

These tools are not standalone timing devices. However, when aligned with daily flow inflection and macro rigidity, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, which amplifies the impact of incremental sales.

Why did the price fall if BlackRock, corporations, or countries buy? Flow mathematics provides a straightforward answer.

The acquisitions of the nation state are episodic and small compared to the daily turnover, and corporate treasurers operate on idiosyncratic schemes.

Banks often facilitate customer activities instead of implementing balance sheet risk on a daily basis. None of those actors compensated a week where the issuers that normally create shares instead of redeeming, the financing stretches towards or below zero, and the companies of dollars. The marginal seller rules the tape in that mix.

The short path depends on the spot creations reappearing and the base expanding. A continuation of net flow days from the largest US spot ETFs, especially IBIT and FBTC, with the CME base pinned near or below 5 percent annualized and flat to negative funding, keeps the market in a distribution phase.

Under this setup, failure to regain $106,400 leaves $100,000 as the battleground and opens the middle to high $90,000 in other red sessions, especially if the macro remains tight.

A more neutral result, with oscillating but smaller flows, a stabilizing base in the area of ​​5-7 percent, and a range-bound dollar around 97-100, supports digestion between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds.

The upside case requires a return of multi-day net creations in the range of $300 to $800 million throughout the complex, based on pushing above 8 to 10 percent, and a softer dollar.

That mix would allow a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reopen the debate around the top of the cycle if flows persist.

One way to follow the state of the game is to focus on the daily issuer level flows, then layer in derivatives and macroeconomic factors.

How to know if the Bitcoin bull run is still on

1. ETF flows (Farside data): Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers such as BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC signal renewed demand. Continued redemption or flat prints, on the other hand, confirm that the offer has become in supply.
2. Fund flows (CoinShares report): Large flows in the universe of digital asset funds, especially when led by Bitcoin, indicate the institutional rotation in risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in alt defensive products indicate the withdrawal of capital.
3. Leverage conditions (CME base and financing): A growing base (above ~7-8% annualized) and positive and stable financing suggest the appetite for directional risk, typical in active bull phases. A flat or negative setup involves deleveraging and distribution.
4. Macro Liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield): A weaker dollar (DXY < 97) and ease makes liquidity channels open which historically support bullish momentum. Strength in any metric tightens liquidity and puts pressure on crypto beta.
5. Mining supply pressure (Hashprice trends): The increase in the price of the hashprice and the sale of miners stable or falling suggests that the market is absorbing a new comfortable supply, bullish behavior. The collapse of the hashprice or peaks in the transfers of miners to exchanges often mark stress points in uptrends.

The last four trading days have turned the spot-ETF supply into a sustained net seller, just as Bitcoin is losing its pivot. With CME’s base subdued and funding soft, marginal pricing has been driven by de-risking rather than acquisition.

A firmer USD and stuck real yields rounded out a flow-led breakout, not a referendum on long-term adoption. Until the daily creations return and $106,400 is recovered, this remains a phase of distribution and digestion in the wider cycle.

Finally, unless the historical pattern of the Bitcoin cycle has been disrupted by the influx of corporate treasurers and ETF flows, then Father Time has already spoken.

If Bitcoin were to reach a new all-time high by the end of the year or in 2026, it would mark the last cycle high ever.