Myriad Moves: Traders Flip on Gold vs Ethereum, Solana Sentiment Sinks

Crypto is sliding once again, with Bitcoin diving below the $100,000 level on Thursday. The consistent and fluctuating price action of the largest crypto asset is also creating a strain on other major peers, such as ethereum and Solana.

This has led to more bearish forecasts from users of Myriad’s prediction markets over the course of the past week, once again leading to more dramatic changes in odds as uncertainty permeates the market.

Here’s a look at some of the most interesting moves from the past week.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of the Decrypt company, DASTAN.)

Gold vs. ETH: Who will hit $5K first?

Open Market: October 15
Nearby market: Open until resolution
Volume: 74 thousand $
Link: See the latest odds on the “Gold vs. ETH: Who’s $5K First?” market on Myriad

While gold is typically compared to Bitcoin, given the currency’s “digital gold” narrative, predictors on Myriad are wondering whether or not the first commodity will reach $5,000 first. ethereumthe second largest crypto asset by market capitalization.

Predictors have long favored ETH in this market, perhaps due to its potentially more volatile upward mobility, but have become less confident as crypto markets slide.

ETH has fallen even further from its August all-time high near $5,000now changed hands at $3,181, or about 57% away from the $5,000 mark. That drop led to forecasters moving the odds to reverse the odds by Thursday afternoon, making gold the favorite to hit $5,000 early at 51.4%.

Just two weeks ago, however, ETH was around 76% favored by predictors as gold began to cool. But the price of gold is once again on the rise, gaining about 3% in the last week to trade at $4,173, only 20% from the $5,000 mark.

Despite the spot activity it shows a certain institutional interest of the ETHand BitMine Immersion Technologies buy billion to drive publicly traded ETH treasuries, technical analysis always suggests lower is the most likely side in the near term for ETH.

What’s next? Gold holds strong despite broader markets falling further. Can ETH bounce back?

New Solana, all-time high at the end of the year?

Open Market: August 6
Nearby market: December 30
Volume: 232 thousand $
Link: See the latest odds on the “Another Solana high at the end of the year?” market on Myriad

Solana The frenzy reached a fever pitch earlier this year when President Donald Trump launched his official meme coin on the blockchain. SOL, the underlying token of the network, later hit a new high of $293.31.

But since then, Solana has sputtered, dropping nearly 52% to now change hands at $141.63.

With its further slide on Thursday, forecasters on Myriad became increasingly bearish on its ability to reach a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Forecasters give SOL only a 10.4% chance of making a new all-time record in the coming weeks before 2026.

The odds in favor of a new all-time high have now fallen to around 46% in the last month, down from 56% on October 10th to today’s mark. In September, the odds were as much as 65% in favor of a new high.

The slide comes amid a positive catalyst for Solana, such as SOL ETFs hit the market with a strong appetite from institutional investors. The ETF and buying pressure from Solana’s digital asset treasurers were supposed to result in a “epic” end of the year.

But now, forecasters think that’s unlikely.

What’s next? The end of the government shutdown or more certainty about a December rate cut could be a short-term catalyst for the broader markets.

Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?

Open Market: August 31
Nearby market: December 29
Volume: $33.9 thousand
Link: See the latest odds on the “Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?” market on Myriad

Traders rejoiced briefly when Jerome Powell and the The Fed cut rates in October, lowering interest rates another 0.25%. But Bitcoin and Ethereum actually fell amid the news, particularly given Powell’s comment that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.”

This tone helped to dramatically change the odds of the Myriad market, which asks users whether or not the Fed will complete “exactly two” rate changes in 2025.

Since the Fed cut rates at its September and October meetings, a December jump settles the market to “yes.”

For most of the market’s existence, “no” was favored since the predictors believed that a third rate cut would definitely happen in December. But as that potential probability became less clear, the forecasters changed the probability to 45% “yes”, an increase of about 16% in the last week in total and more than 20% in the last few days.

Data blackouts due to the government shutdown they have created a cloudier understanding of the macro environment, potentially hindering the Fed’s ability to make a policy decision as the year draws to a close.

Will “Mr. Too Late” Jerome Powell, as President Trump called him, wait even longer to make another cut? Predictors are careful.

What’s next? The next meeting of the FOMC will be held on December 9 and 10.