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Bitcoin’s recent wave of whale selling pressure is typical of a late-stage crypto cycle and should be no more concerning than it has been in the past, according to Glassnode analysts.
On Thursday, a large Bitcoin whale, identified as trader Owen Gunden, made moves towards selling, transferring 2,400 Bitcoin (BTC), is worth $237 million, on the crypto exchange Kraken, according to to the Arkham blockchain analytics platform.
It adds to a recent expansion of Bitcoin whales apparently moving away from cryptocurrency.
Glassnode analysts, however, argue that the data shows that narratives such as “OG Whales Dumping” or “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO” are more nuanced in reality.
Average monthly spending by long-term holders indicates that flows have grown from above 12,000 Bitcoin per day in early July at about 26,000 by Thursday, Glassnode he saidwhich points to regularly and evenly spaced distribution, not “specifically OG dumping, but normal bull market behavior”.
“This steady growth reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts – a typical pattern of late-cycle profits, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
“Long-term holders have realized profits throughout this cycle, as they have in every previous one,” Glassnode added.
The crypto market is not yet on top: Kronos Research
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Vincent Liu, the chief investment officer of the quantitative marketing firm Kronos Research, said that the selling of whales is a structured cycle flow, and the stable rotation of profit, rather than panic, often indicates a phase of the end of the cycle, together with the increase of realized earnings and resistant liquidity.
Liu, however, said that this “late cycle” phase does not necessarily mean that the market is at the top, as long as there are buyers to take the new supply.
“The late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped, it means momentum has cooled while macro and liquidity steer the ship. Fading rate-cut bets and short-term softness have slowed upside, not suk it,” said Liu.
“Readings on the chain suggest a potential bottom. The net unrealized profit ratio of Bitcoin at 0.476 signals the short-term lows that can be formed, it offers a strategic positioning, but it is only one of many indicators that must be followed to confirm a market bottom.”
The sentiment of the crypto market has been fearful as the the broader market continues to decline. Analysts attributed this to a range of macroeconomic factors, as traders move to assets with clearer exposure to economic policies and credit flows.
Market tops are usually four years apart
Charlie Sherry, the head of finance at the Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said that whales selling in isolation are not usually significant, but this time, there is a lack of significant support on the buy side to absorb that selling.
However, he still thinks it’s too early to know if it’s a sign of a cycle cycle, even if it’s plausible.
Market tops have historically occurring about four years apartas seen in December 2017, about 1,067 days after the bottom, and then in November 2021, about 1,058 days after the low.
“The recent all-time high on October 6 2025 came 1050 days from the bottom. From that point of view, it is plausible that we have already topped this cycle and are entering the first stages of a bear market,” said Sherry.
Market cycles might not exist anymore
At the same time, however, Sherry noted that the “four-year cycle concept is not bulletproof”, as there are only a few examples to draw from, and Bitcoin continues to evolve with different demand dynamics fueled by funds exchanged and corporate treasurers.
Related: The sour crypto mood could fuel an unexpected rally this month: Santiment
“These buyers do not trade cyclically or follow the rhythm of four years. The appetite of these players has been weak recently, but that can change quickly,” he said.
“Only time will tell if we just saw a cycle. There are fundamental reasons why Bitcoin can no longer follow a four-year pace, but the strength of those fundamentals has now been proven.”
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