Running for the Exits: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All hours ET unless otherwise noted)

The Czech National Bank became the world’s first central bank to buy bitcoin BTC$95,646.31is a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuted in the United States with an impressive business volume.

Yet what dominates the headlines is the fall of bitcoin below $100,000 and the crash of the crypto market. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index slumped 8.35% in the last 24 hours amid a broader drawdown that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 1.65% tech-heavy Nasdaq lose 2.29% on Thursday.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have also seen significant outflows. Investors pulled $869 million on Thursday, the second largest daily outing on record. Over the past three weeks, spot bitcoin ETFs have lost $2.64 billion.

“We see a strong interest in owning a long-term BTC vol around 80-120k, coupled with selective short-term call selling (classic covered call activity),” Wintermute said. “Positioning leans from neutral to cautious, but shows no appetite to pursue major downsides.”

When it comes to ether options, Wintermute noted that it sees “consistent hedging to the year-end breakout, and active call selling across the curve, particularly 3.5-4.0k.” Traders are positioned at a disadvantage.

The sale sparked a wave of liquidations, bringing in more than $1.11 billion in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. It comes as expectations of a US interest rate cut in December begin to fade and concerns over a mountain of AI bubbles.

The CME FedWatch The workshop shows that the chances of a rate cut this month are close to a collapse, while traders in Polymarket are still giving a 25 bps cut a slight edgeweighing a 52% chance of that happening. It is down from 90% at the end of last month.

Adding to the uncertainty, the White House he said that recent key economic indicators, including October inflation, may not be released in full due to delays from the now ended government shutdown.

“Now that AI excitement is cooling and more questions are being raised about spending, concerns around the K-shaped economy in the US are rising again,” Wintermute wrote.

Despite the setbacks, the crypto sector has come through, with spot ETFs from major issuers being traded and a central bank buying BTC, macro winds are keeping prices under pressure. Stay tuned!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • November 14: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market.
  • November 14: Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market.

Token events

For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Government votes and calls
  • Convex Finance is voted to discontinue the OFT token support for assets like frxETH on Polygon zkEVM and Blast, citing its deprecation or inactivity. Voting ends on November 14th.
• Unlock
  • November 15: WalletConnect Token (WCT) to unlock 65.21% of its circulating supply worth $13.76 million.
  • November 15: CONX$17.65 to unlock 2.92% of its circulating supply worth $25.45 million.
  • November 15: STRK$0.1401 to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $14.44 million.
  • November 16: ARB$0.2374 to unlock 1.94% of its circulating supply worth $24.76 million.
• Token throw
  • November 14: Pieverse (Pieverse) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, XT and others.

Conferences

For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market movements

• BTC is down 1.87% as of 4 pm ET Thursday at $104,909.52 (24 hours: -6.05%)
• ETH is down 0.56% at $3,160.31 (24 hours: -9.6%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.17% to 3,096.79 (24 hours: -8.14%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps to 2.88%
• BTC funding rate is 0.0082% (8.944% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.2% at 99.36
• Gold futures were down 0.56% at $4,170.90
• Silver futures were down 1.08% at $52.60
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.77% at 50,376.53
• The Hang Seng closed up 1.85% at 26,572.46
• FTSE is down 1.35% to 9,675.09
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.01% at 5,684.85
• The DJIA closed Thursday up 1.65% at 47,457.22
• The S&P 500 closed up 1.66% at 6,737.49
• The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.29% at 22,870.36
• The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.86% at 30,253.64
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.32% at 3,103.60
• US 10-year Treasury rate up 1.8 bps to 4.129%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.23% at 6,744.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.48% at 24,974.25
• The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.15% at 47,476.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC Dominance: 59.77% (-0.67%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0327 (0.84%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1089 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $40.31
• Total Fees: 2.96 BTC / $300,582
• CME Futures Open Interest: 140,275 BTC
• BTC gold price: 22.8 oz.
• BTC vs Gold market cap: 11.46%

Technical analysis

• The chart shows the daily movements in Volmex’s 30-day bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV.
• The index formed a pennant pattern, marking a triangular consolidation after the recent bullish trend breakout.
• Such patterns usually indicate a temporary break that cools higher. Therefore, the pennant could soon resolve bullishly, paving the way for further gains in the index.
• In other words, the expectation of BTC price volatility could continue to increase in the near term.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Thursday at $283.14 (-6.86%), -1.82% at $277.99 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $82.34 (-4.59%), -0.62% at $81.83
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.24 (-12.89%), -3.34% at $26.33
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $41.02 (-9.85%), -2% at $40.20
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.78 (-11.31%), -2.11% at $12.51
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-10.22%), -2.59% at $13.52
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-7.79%), -2.97% at $14.71
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.98 (-10.13%), -3.09% at $11.61
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.97 (-12.07%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $18.15 (-8.84%)

Crypto Treasury Company

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $208.54 (-7.15%), -1.89% at $204.59
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23 (-10.61%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.99 (-5.01%), -2.37% at $10.73
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.22 (-4.73%), -0.62% at $3.20
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.9 (-5.47%)

ETF flows

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily net flows: – $866.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $59.33 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.34 million

Spot ETH ETF

• Daily net flows: – $259.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.33 billion
• Total ETH holding ~6.48 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Sleep

• Bitcoin Falls Below $97,000, ETH, SOL, ADA Down 8% as $880M in Bullish Bets Liquidate (CoinDesk): Bitcoin fell below $98,000 for the first time since May as $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out in 24 hours. About $887 million came from loans.
• Why Bitcoin, XRP, Solana and Ether Slide as Gold and Silver Soar? (CoinDesk) Rising credit risks are weighing on debt-financed crypto treasurers, raising the threat of forced token sales, while gold and silver benefit from growing fiscal concerns and a global flight to safety.
• 3 Keys to follow as ether strengthens against Bitcoin (CoinDesk): ETH’s outperformance lifted its BTC ratio as charts show seller exhaustion and a potential momentum shift signaled by an impending MACD crossover.
• China’s economy hit by weakest factory output, retail sales growth in more than a year (Reuters): Disappointing October factory and retail sales figures highlighted deepening structural problems and fading policy tools as Beijing hesitated to unleash fresh stimulus despite mounting pressure.