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Hongji Feng
Author
Hongji Feng
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Bitcoin fell to a 24-hour low near $94,755 earlier rebounding towards $96,000a move that put round number support in play and kept the focus on whether the selling pressure came from leverage, flows, or macro jitters.
The drawdown followed a week of weaker closes after early November levels near $110,000, reinforcing a shift from momentum to repair.
The sentiment indicator is in fear territory, with readings around the 20s this week, which aligns with heavier risk reduction rather than a modest headline shock. That tone meets a timely update from 10x Researchthat on October 22 “Bear Market Watch” called for a first stop towards $100,000, while flagging fading on-chain and derivatives support, a stance consistent with how this pullback has traded so far.
What drove the last breaks
Macro signals have been stuck in a negative way, and funds data shows concentrated stress in Bitcoin vehicles. Almost $1.0 billion in net flows were seen from Bitcoin-focused products in the week to November 3, even as other currencies saw offsetting interest, which helps explain why the heaviest pressure sat on BTC spot parks. Prices in the images reflected that tilt, with Bitcoin leading the declines and Ethereum lagging behind shortly after.
Community chatter tracks splitting: Trading forums and research feeds focused on the mix of ETF redemptions, tighter fundamentals and thinner order books during US hours, while the fear index slide repeated a rotation from dip buying to protection.
That mosaic fits a reset rather than a single catalyst and leaves the next phase tied to whether flows stabilize over the weekend.
Liquidity, Basis, and Spot Depth To Watch
Repair phases tend to start with a better depth BTC and ETH pairsAs narrower spreads and larger scales indicate that market makers are willing to stockpile inventory through overnight cycles.
When that reconstruction appears with calmer financing and a base that is moving toward neutral, the rallies last longer because the demand for cash replaces the squeezes that eventually fade. Kaiko and exchange dashboards help confirm these mechanics during busy windows, and pair well with simple checks on intraday spread behavior around US data drops.
Stablecoin supply trends add a second filter. Net issuance that turns higher for more than a few sessions often coincides with a firmer spot settlement, while flat or negative supply leans against durable recoveries even as prices bounce intraday. Tracking issuance alongside exchange balances helps separate real demand from transitory hedging, especially when ETF flows pull in the other direction.
Bitcoin Price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
10x Track Record of current research and reading
10x Research highlights a process that combines chain flows, derivative positioning and macro context. The team has a documented record of calling the end of the year in 2022, 2023 and 2024, while warning that it lacked the usual fuel of the fourth quarter.
Its update keeps the attention on if the financing cools, the reconstruction of the depth, and the pressure of loss realized facilitates on the chain, since those changes often precede better closed instead of better opened.
Ethereum needs a closer still to pull bases back towards neutral, and large-cap tokens like Solana and XRP typically stop after BTC depth improves rather than before, which is why the first controls sit with Bitcoin order books, ETF flow direction, and the fear gauge drifts on consecutive sessions. If those series stabilize together, the resetter becomes constructive; if they split, volatility persists.
