Bitcoin brief slip below $100K heightens crypto winter fears

Bitcoin’s sustained price above $100,000 was supposed to signal its arrival as a mature institutional asset. Instead, its sudden reversal below that limit has upset traders and revived fears of another crypto winter.

November 4, Bitcoin briefly plunged to its lowest level from May to $99,075, before recovering to about $102,437 as of press time. Despite the price recovery, BTC is still down about 3% from the day’s peak of $104,777, according to CryptoSlate data.

This price performance resulted in Bitcoin lagging US Treasuries for the first time this year, making it one of the most popular macro trades of 2025.

Still, analysts say the move reflects a structural reset rather than a systemic collapse.

Why is the price of Bitcoin falling?

Long-term holders have played a significant role in driving the downtrend of the iconic digital asset by realizing profits at record rates.

Bitcoin analyst James Van Straten noticed that this cohort has sold more than 362,000 BTC, equivalent to about 3,100 BTC per day, since July. According to him, that rate has accelerated over the past three weeks to nearly 9,000 BTC daily.

Another analyst, Johan Bergman, suggested the total could be even higher. He calculated that the cumulative realized profits of the LTH cohort increased from $600 billion in June to $754 billion today.

According to him:

“Assuming they sold at an average price of $110,000, that’s about $72,000 in profit per coin. So, $154B / $72K ≈ 2.1 million coins sold.”

Data from James Check at CheckOnChain also reveals that Bitcoin currently faces $34 billion in monthly selling pressure as older coins return to exchanges.

That influx has largely offset weakened demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries, some of which have shifted focus to share purchases instead of new crypto allocations.

At the same time, speculative activity is also rampant in the market.

Data from Glassnode shows that funding rates for perpetual futures have declined by 62% since August, from about $338 million to $127 million per month, reflecting lower leverage.

The company said:

“This highlights a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders become reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”

Meanwhile, the fading enthusiasm comes amid tight global liquidity.

The prolonged US government shutdown, the longest on record, has frozen about $150 billion in the Treasury’s General Account, eliminating liquidity that typically flows through risk assets.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes noticed that since the increase in the debt ceiling in July, the liquidity of the dollar has decreased by about 8%, while Bitcoin has decreased by 5%, reinforcing the correlation between the two.

$95K becomes the stress point of the market

Due to this wave of selling activity, Check estimates that 57% of all money invested in Bitcoin is now at a loss. His cost base model, which values ​​each coin at its last transaction on the chain, reflects what he calls market bias.

He wrote:

“We price each coin when the last transaction on chain, and this helps us interpret the sentiment based on our recent bias. We don’t think about our coins from previous cycles as much as the ones we bought 3 days ago.”

Considering this, he said that about 63% of the invested capital carries a cost base above $95,000, making that level the key psychological and structural support.

He also noted that the unrealized losses total almost $20 billion, or about 3% of the market capitalization. Historically, bear markets have started once unrealized losses exceed 10%.

Therefore, if prices fall below $95,000, anticipate a deterioration in sentiment. The previous corrections in 2024 and at the beginning of 2025 stabilized when the losses reached 7-8% of the market capitalization. Anything deeper could signal that a new bear phase is underway.

Check noted:

“Obviously no one wants to make that call AFTER the price has already dropped, so $95k is a critical line in the sand to hold, as it deteriorates below.”

Is this the start of a bear market?

Industry analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin’s recent pullback marks the start of a new downtrend or just a mid-cycle reset.

Check said:

“There was a tremendous turnover of coins in 2025, and a lion’s share happened above $95k. We do not want to see the price fall below $95k, but we also expect the bulls to mount a hellish fight to defend it. Prepare for a bear, but do not believe the condemned.”

However, in a recent note called “Hallelujah“Hayes frames the decline as a function of temporary dollar scarcity rather than structural failure.

According to him, the heavy issuance of Treasury securities siphoned liquidity from the money markets. However, I believe this dynamic will reverse once policymakers reopen the government and resume budget expansion.

He wrote:

“If the current conditions of the money market persist, the treasury debt pile grows exponentially, the SRF balance must grow as the lender of last resort. As the SRF balances grow, the amount of fiat dollars in the world will also expand. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.”

Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, director of investment in Bitwise Asset management, actions Hayes’s long-term optimism, however, frames it in Bitcoin’s evolutionary maturity.

On CNBC, he described the recent recession as “a tale of two markets,” where retail traders capitulated amid leverage washouts while institutions quietly increased exposure.

Considering this, Hougan stressed that BTC’s risk-adjusted outlook remains unmatched, but the days of 100x annual returns are gone. He added:

“We are unlikely to see 100x returns in a single year. But there is still massive upside once the distribution phase is over…[However, we still] I believe bitcoin will reach $1.3 million in 2035, and personally I think we are being conservative.

At the same time, I believe that the era of BTC’s 1% allocation is over, as its lower volatility makes it more attractive to hold.

Hougan concluded: :

“As an allocator, my response to this dynamic would not be to sell the asset – after all, we expect bitcoin to be the largest asset in the world in the next decade – but rather, to buy more of it. Put differently, the lower volatility means that it is safer to own more of something.”