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Main takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s decline mirrors the Nasdaq’s weakness, but it lacks a fundamental rationale.
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Spot BTC ETF inflows cooled but remained net positive, showing resilient investor demand.
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Stablecoin liquidity and onchain accumulation suggest conditions for a rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline to $100,800 on Tuesday, dropping 10%+ this week and mirroring the 1.67% drop in Nasdaq 100 futures as risk assets came under pressure. Historically, when the Nasdaq falls by more than 1.5% in a day, Bitcoin has a 75% chance of posting a negative return, on average a decrease of -2.4%, according to data from EcoinBitcoin-NasdaqItcoin Nasdaq correlation by Ecoinometrics. Source: X
Despite the macroeconomic drag, the analyst argued that the weakness of the price of Bitcoin is not completely justified by the fundamentals. Financial conditions remain loose, and equity markets have recently hit record highs.
“Bitcoin has been cheap relative to the macro backdrop,” Ecoinometrics noted, emphasizing that the current dip appears to be more sentiment-driven than structural.
However, explore the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs they are slowed down especially since the beginning of October. The first two weeks of Q4 generated more than $5 billion in net inflows, while the last four weeks saw cumulative inflows of about $1.5 billion. Although this move suggests some cooling in demand, the overall net flow balance remains positive, indicating that long-term investor appetite for BTC exposure remains resilient.
Globally, the slowdown has been felt in crypto exchange products (ETP). Last week he saw $246.6 million in net flows from all crypto ETPs, largely driven by $752 million in Bitcoin outflows. In particular, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $403 million in outflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC saw $68 million in outflows.
Onchain metrics add nuance to the picture. Sales pressure decreased from $835 million to $469 million week-over-week, while long-term accumulation remains strong. Bitcoin whales sent a modest outflow of about 4,900 BTC to exchanges, a sign of cautious repositioning rather than panic.
Exchange reserves fell to 2.85 million BTC, reinforcing the broader accumulation trend, even as BTC traded below its 200-day moving average ($108,000) and the short-term cost base of $113,000.
Related: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Dump 400K BTC: How Low Can BTC Price Go?
Bitcoin’s liquidity signals the turning point
Data from CryptoQuant suggested that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen back to the 13-14 range, the same area seen before Bitcoin’s rebound earlier this year. Historically, this level has marked liquidity turning points, where increases in stablecoin balances signal an increase in “purchasing power” to the share.
Currently, with Bitcoin trading at $101,800, the low SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is quietly building again, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally or the last bullish stage of this cycle.
However, each subsequent SSR rally has become weaker, suggesting that while another upside phase may still be possible, the market’s underlying liquidity momentum could be fading.
Related: Bitcoin price receives $92K target as new buyers enter ‘capitulation’ mode.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
