Bitcoin Gets Sub-$100,000 Target as BTC Price Cancels Weekend Gains

Bitcoin (BTC) begins November with a drop to $107,000 as traders prepare for further tests of support.

• Bitcoin price action is giving bulls a sense of déjà vu as the weekend’s gains evaporate and the downside liquidity grows.

• The seasonality of November calls for serious gains in the price of BTC, but so far, there is no sign of relief.

• Hopes of a US-China trade deal support stocks, while crypto fails to join the party as Fed rate nerves return.

• Institutional demand hits seven-month lows compared to freshly mined BTC supply.

• Bitcoin retail investors are pulling back, as data suggests prices of $110,000 may be unsustainable due to low network activity.

Bitcoin trader sees ‘difficult’ trading week.

Bitcoin fell as soon as the end of each day was completed, returning to $107,000.

Given by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD erase the gains of the entire weekend after traders warned over his “Sunday pomp.”

“In all honesty, it looks like this could be one of the toughest trading weeks of Q4,” trader CrypNuevo predicted in a thread on X.

“This makes me think that we may be in a range-limited environment; therefore, I should be aware of a potential retest of low-range.”

CrypNuevo noted that those lows had key confluence with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $101,150, increasing its chances as a bottom target. Price revisited the area on Binance during its snap crash from all-time highs of $126,200 in October.

“It’s very solid support, so we see a very aggressive bounce from there,” he continued.

Others, including trader Daan Crypto Trades, have prioritized the liquidity of the exchange order book for key nearby price targets.

“Two big levels of liquidity had built up in the short term during the weekend range,” he told X followers.

“The price took the lower limit that was at $108.5K. There is still a decent cluster around $112K. When you extend, the $105K-$106K and $117K levels are worth watching.”

Trader and analyst Mark Cullen warned that lower liquidity could be too tempting.

“$BTC looks weak and that slice of lower liquidity is calling, but do we have one last push before we see a deeper pull in the coming days/weeks?” he asked on X.

“We’re waiting for the United States to wake up and see how they start the week.”

BTC price recovery chances are collapsing

It may be the beginning of what is traditionally the best six months of the year for stocks, but crypto is not in the mood to follow.

Bitcoin is already down 2% in November, adding insult to injury for the bulls who are still reeling from their worst October performance since 2018.

Given by CoinGlass shows how high the stakes are – average November gains since 2013 are over 40%.

Forecast markets underline the current low sentiment among crypto market participants. Polymarket it only has a 33% chance of BTC/USD ending the month above $120,000, with $115,000 at 60%.

U Crypto Fear & Greed Indexmeanwhile, it remains in “fear” territory, even to reflect Bitcoin’s latest dip to $107,000.

Last week, when that level also rose, research platform Santiment suggested that it was key when it comes to investors’ price outlook.

“Bitcoin’s fall to $107K on Thursday led to a high number of price predictions below $100K BTC,” he said. wrote about X at the time, alongside a chart comparing the call price under $100,000 to those over $150,000.

“Markets are moving against the crowd’s expectations, so a relief rally is likely while FUD is peaking as it is now.”

Trade war relief versus a hawkish Fed

Good news takes precedence for stocks this week, as optimism about a US-China trade deal outweighs a risk of a conflict of interest.

S&P 500 futures opened modestly higher as markets digested reduced tariffs and the removal of restrictions on Chinese rare earths and auto chips.

“This is the BIGGEST de-escalation ever,” business resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a reaction to weekend plans.

Despite concerns about US military intervention in Venezuela and Nigeria, trade remained at the top of the list for risk investors. At the same time, only crypto felt the tension as the new week began.

A drop in Bitcoin’s correlation to stocks didn’t help the situation. Last week, macro analyst Jordi Visser said that now, only the big tech companies provide BTC price action with an anchor form.

“Bitcoin moves with technological stocks. It is related to liquidity and the “risk appetite”, he wrote in a blog post.

“For years, you could predict the direction of Bitcoin by looking at the Nasdaq. This correlation has been broken recently and from December 2024. Completely.”

20% of S&P 500 company earnings are due in the coming days, including AMD and Palantir.

The ongoing shutdown of the US government means that precious little inflation data will be available, with only private sector wages unaffected.

In the background, there is growing uncertainty about the economic policy of the United States. The Federal Reserve is increasingly stealthy, with additional interest rate cuts in 2025 now far from guaranteed.

Data from CME Group FedWatch tool put the probability of a cut at the next Fed meeting in December at 63%.

Commenting, marketing Mosaic Asset Company said that the Fed’s planned stop of quantitative easing (QT) could provide a bullish counterweight.

“This has reduced the Fed’s balance sheet from a peak of nearly $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.5 trillion now,” he wrote in the latest edition of his regular newsletter.The Market Mosaic.”

“The end of QT removes a key source of financial market liquidity drain.”

The institutional supply drain reverses

The institutional demand for Bitcoin is back into the fire this week as the price of BTC underperformance versus stocks and gold takes its toll.

Data from an investment company based in the United Kingdom Farside Investors shows three consecutive days of net flows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as of October 31.

The largest of these, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), contributed more than half a billion dollars of the total.

Now, these flows are causing concern as institutional demand fails to keep pace with the daily increase in BTC supply.

The trend was noticed by Charles Edwards, founder of crypto quantitative capital digital asset Capriole Investments.

“For the first time in 7 months, net institutional buying fell below daily mined supply,” he commented alongside Capriole’s figures on Monday.

Edwards described the results as “not good,” emphasizing that the total includes ETFs.

The last time institutional appetite failed to match newly mined supply was just before BTC/USD hit its current local lows around $75,000 in early April.

As Cointelegraph reportedhowever, Visser sees the ETF’s progress as part of a long-term maturation of Bitcoin as a macro asset class.

“For years, the liquidity simply does not exist. Try to sell $ 100 million of Bitcoin in 2015. You want to crater the price. Try to sell $ 1 billion in 2019. The same problem. The market could not absorb it,” he argued.

“But now? The ETFs are providing an institutional offer. The main companies hold Bitcoin in their balance sheets. The sovereign wealth funds are involved. The market has finally matured to the point where the first holders can exit significant positions without causing chaos.”

Bitcoin Retail Investors In ‘Retirement’

Bitcoin retail investors have been running for cover since the price fell nearly 20% from all-time highs in October.

Related: Bitcoin May Fall 70% Before $1M, MEXC ‘White Whale’ Excuse: Hodler’s Digest, October 26 – November 1

This is visible from the decrease in active BTC addresses, as reported by research from the onchain analytical platform CryptoQuant.

“At the beginning of November 2024, the active addresses were around 1.18 million, while on October 30, 2025, they are 872,000, representing a decrease of 26.1%”, wrote the contributor Carmelo Aleman in one of his “Quicktake” Weekend blog posts.

Aleman directly linked the recent price action, which has sparked several mass liquidation events, to the “withdrawal” of sales.

“The absence of retail investors limits the visible activity of the network and delays the natural end of a market cycle,” he concluded.

“Retail provides the emotional push and liquidity for strong hands to exit positions profitably, and without it, cycles extend longer than usual.”

Contributor Pelin Ay went further, suggesting that the Bitcoin network has strayed too far from the price. Metcalfe’s law, he said — which measures the fair price in terms of network propagation — supports that theory.

“When the NVM Ratio rises sharply above 1, and especially above 2, the price has historically tended to retreat afterwards,” a Quicktake post. explained.

“The current value of 2.97 suggests that the network valuation is well above the historical average, indicating that Bitcoin is currently trading in an overvalued area in terms of its network size.”

Ay suggested that the BTC price could drop to $98,500 later, due to Metcalfe-based “saturation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.