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Nick Szabowhose early writings help shape the philosophy of Bitcoinbroke his silence with an unusual thread dissecting what drives the world’s oldest cryptography. According to Szabo, Bitcoin is still climbing its learning curve – not technically, but psychologically – as more and more people begin to understand its role as a form of savings minimized to trust, resistant to dilution in an increasingly unstable global economy and the changing monetary landscape.
Similar to hot NASDAQ stocks, he said, Bitcoin’s long-term model involves waves of adoption of real progress, speculative overshoot and a lot of noise in between.
Sound money thesis
Szabo explained that much of what traders obsess over, such as macro data, M2 supply and gold correlations, are still “secondary signals”. These, he said, would only matter once Bitcoin completes its educational cycle and is no longer treated as a technological investment. So far, their chart reflects human learning curves more than inflation charts or traditional market cycles.
The “sound money” signals are real, he noted, but they’re buried under speculation and will eventually catch on only when Bitcoin’s adoption phase matures.
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When another analyst warned that Bitcoin could reach a “ceiling or a cliff”, Szabo dismissed the concern, stating that the history of money and the architecture of Bitcoin already show what is most likely to happen.
The market seemed less philosophical about it – BTC traded around $104,500down almost 2% in the past day – but Szabo’s message cut clear: Bitcoin’s biggest signal is still education, not macroeconomics, and that process is just beginning to develop.
