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Main takeaways:
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Long-term Bitcoin holders sold 400,000 BTC in the last 30 days.
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Short-term Bitcoin holders panic-sell $3 billion in BTC at a loss.
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Bitcoin’s rising wedge targets the price of $72,000 as traders say BTC could drop as low as $60,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) declined on Tuesday, falling more than 3.5% in the last 24 hours to trade at $104,000. This brings the weekly and 30-day losses to 8% and 17%, respectively.
This drawdown is accompanied by selling by long-term holders, who have unloaded more than 400,000 BTC in the past month.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin sold $42 billion in BTC
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), entities that hold coins for at least six months without selling, unloaded after the BTC price hit new all-time highs above $126,000 in early October.
Related: Crypto whale hitting October crash opens $55M BTC and ETH longs
Analyzing the LTH supply change, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn he said that on a 30-day basis, supply was down by a net 405.00 BTC, worth about $42.3 billion at Tuesday’s market prices.
This represents “almost 2% of the total supply”, he said Crypto market commentator TFTC responded to Maartunn’s analysis, adding:
“Bitcoin is in a material distribution phase, and the price is still strong above $100,000.”
TFTC founder Marty Bent he said“The fact that the market can absorb this amount of selling pressure without nuking 30%-50%” is a positive signal for Bitcoin.
However, short-term holders were also under pressure as they sent more than 26,800 BTC (worth about $3 billion) to losing exchanges over the past three days.
🚨 Capitulation of the short-term holder
28,600 BTC ($2.98B) is sent to the exchanges in loss from STH. pic.twitter.com/zLmfE0lzhp
— Maartun (@JA_Maartun) November 4, 2025
This activity highlights a familiar pattern of behavior where STHs, often called “weak hands,” tend to panic-selling during market jumpsoften realizing losses.
As Cointelegraph reportedshort-term holders are now sitting on growing unrealized losses and are likely to continue selling if the downtrend continues.
Bitcoin’s falling wedge pattern targets $72,000
The weekly chart shows the BTC/USD pair validating a falling wedgeafter the price lost support from the lower trend line of the pattern at $114,550.
Bulls are now fighting to keep the price above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $103,300.
Other key lines of defense are the $100,000 psychological level and the 100-week SMA at $82,000.
A weekly close below this zone will clear that path for BTC to fall towards the wedge target at $72,000, which represents a 30% decline from the current price.
The downside of Bitcoin is preceded by a growing bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI).
The weekly chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair rose between mid-July and early October, forming higher lows. However, during the same period, its weekly RSI decreased from 70 to 45, resulting in lower lows, as illustrated in the weekly chart above.
A divergence between rising prices and a falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the prevailing bullish trend, prompting traders to sell higher at local highs as profit-taking intensifies and buyer exhaustion sets in.
Using the power law model, the technical analyst JDK Analysis he asked veteran trader Peter Brandt to weigh in how much the price of Bitcoin could go.
Peter Brandt he answered that Bitcoin could melt at “the upper green band” of the model around $60,000, adding:
“I hope you’re right about the top not being top yet.”
As Cointelegraph reportedcrypto sentiment fell into the “extreme fear” zone at 21, after Bitcoin fell below $104,000, with calls for a price under $100,000 BTC grow stronger.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
