Bitcoin Price Outlook: What’s Next After Red October?

Bitcoin headed into November after its first negative October performance in six years, leaving investors wondering if the historic high signals a deeper bear trend or a complete reset before the next stage.

Bitcoin is down 1.4% in 24 hours and is trading around $107,000, contributing to a 2.2% drop in the total crypto market capitalization to $3.64 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.

The sale triggered more than $1.16 billion in long-term liquidations on Nov. 3, underscoring the intensity of the recent leverage selloff.

The road so far

“Red October” of the month happened against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s announcement of the end of quantitative easing and rate cuts, followed by comments that moderate expectations for a December rate cut.

Uncertainty around macroeconomic policy has pressured risk assets, with Bitcoin’s US session returns cooling significantly from 0.94% on October 29 to -4.56% in the past week, according to. Veil data.

Geopolitical tensions have noticeably eased following the Trump-Xi deal that has eased the trade war. The temporary pause announced the threat of 100% tariffs and extends a delicate truce between the world’s two largest economies.

What’s next?

“So, could this red October really set the next major milestone in Bitcoin’s bull cycle? I think it’s entirely possible,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, said. Decrypt. “Corrections like this tend to be the middle point of a broader cycle rather than the end.”

Historical data supports the optimistic interpretation, with the average return of Bitcoin for the third quarter remaining positive at 6.05%.

It is also worth noting that November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, displaying an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.

“For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism,” Lin said. “Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets absorb the Fed’s comments, but a decisive change in tone could trigger a recovery.”

The expert argues that if Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving pattern, “a move towards $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach,” citing strong underlying fundamentals from ETF flows to institutional custody solutions.

Bitcoin is likely to continue a “range-higher” trajectory, Decrypt it was before said. The bullish case is also supported by strong data on the chain showing that long-term structural demand remains. intact despite short-term weakness.