Bitcoin Price Wilts After First Red October Since 2018

Bitcoin BTC$107,728.86 is trading under pressure after recording its first October loss since 2018. The charts indicate a growing risk of a deeper decline to $100,000 or below, with consistent bias for put options in the options market.

The broader market continues to see capital outflows, as evidenced by the decline in open interest in futures.

According to Alex Kuptsikevich, The FxPro’s chief market analyst, the focus is on BTC’s 200-day simple moving average at around $107,000.

“The ongoing test of support since the second half of October is a significant reason for our caution regarding the market in the short term,” he said in an email. “The most pessimistic scenario would be realized in case of simultaneous pressure on the stock markets and a strengthening of the dollar. But the optimists can also note the sequence of higher lows at the tops of the sale.”

Derivatives positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• Open interest in BTC and ETH futures (OI) remained largely unchanged over the past 24 hours, while OI in altcoins, including XRP, HYPE and DOGE, fell, indicating capital outflows from the broader market.
• However, the delta normalized cumulative volume OI for BTC and ETH decreased in tandem with the broader market, suggesting that a bias towards short positions drove the higher OI.
• The Volmex 30-day volatility indices of bitcoin and ether are rising again, indicating renewed expectations for price turbulence.
• On the CME, BTC and ETH’s three-month annual basis remains closed below 10%. Positioning in ether futures and options remains elevated relative to bitcoin.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options show a bias for put options in the short and near expirations.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• A dismal week of price action extended on Monday with altcoins included This$0.3534doublezero (2Z) and plasma XPL$0.2740 all facing strong sales pressure.
• ENA and 2Z both slumped by 7% in the last 24 hours to make up a 30% decline in the last seven days. The Plasma is trading at $0.27, a sharp contrast from this time last month when it was around $0.90 the week after it went live.
• There is a reason for limited optimism in the altcoin market: the average relative strength index is at 37.51/100, which indicates oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally.
• Much of this will depend on the direction of bitcoin BTC$107,728.86 and ether ETH$3,702.50both of which are to a lesser extent on Monday challenging the support levels at $107,500 and $3,700, respectively.
• A break below these levels will cause a ripple effect in the altcoin market due to various levels of liquidity which, coupled with potential derivative liquidations, could stimulate a cascade effect.
• If bitcoin can pull back above the $112,000 mark, it would ease bearish sentiment and give altcoins a chance to challenge previously resilient resistance levels.
• The entire crypto market capitalization is $3.59 trillion after losing $600 billion in value since October 6th.