Bitcoin Risks Losing 80% of Its Value If Oldest Crypto Market Theory Comes True

Bitcoin is trading near $110,000But its long-term profit and loss signal shows the same curve alignment that preceded each of the three major sell-offs in its history. The 365-day moving average of the PnL Index, followed by CryptoQuantthey hit similar numbers in 2013, 2017 and 2021, and each time, there was a drop of about 75-80% the following year.

During these periods, the market value fell from $1,100 to $200, then from $19,700 to $3,200, and later from $69,000 to $15,500. Each reset aligns with the halving model that reduces the new supply of Bitcoin every four years, forming the recurring cycle of expansion and contraction.

The current curve is again close to its upper band, which shows that the profit is now higher than the new accumulation.

If the proportional structure repeats itself, a full retracement could take place Bitcoin between $22,000 and $30,000 before the next halving. On-chain metrics show realized cooling gains, a reduction in transaction intensity and lower flows from long-term portfolios – all typical of late cycle phases.

The future of Bitcoin

The timeline is clear for CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju: one year of acceleration, one of peak formation and two of correction before the next halving restarts the model. The current slope of the PnL Index, which has flattened since its 2024 high, fits perfectly with its historical pace.

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So, the future of Bitcoin it depends on whether this four-year cycle maintains control over the market or whether it finally breaks. If it holds, the next deep reset could be the start of the 2026 accumulation phase.