Bitcoin tests the $95k HODL wall after cascade knocks out $655M from bulls

Bitcoin it did what many bulls feared: it fell below six figures, crashed to $100,000, and even hit more than $98,000 in a wave of liquidations not seen since May.

As reported from CryptoSlateBTC fell to $98,550, triggering $190 million in long liquidations in one hour and $655 million in 24 hours, as spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $278 million on November 12 and $961 million for the month so far.

This event changed a slow decline in a strong drop, clearing the leveraged longs and forcing the market to face the support on the chain below the price.

Data on the chain reveals the changing structure of the market under $100k

Data from Coinbase showed the extent of the move in the United States after liquidations began. Bitcoin rose to $103,988 before falling to $95,900, last closing near $96,940: just 2% above $95,000, the chain HODLers wall. The market fell from a 5% cushion above the wall to almost touching.

The structure of the wall on the chain remains, but the behavior of the price has changed. The cost base distribution shows that about 65% of all USD invested in Bitcoin is above $95,000, with every short-term holder coin priced there or higher, and 30% of the long-term holder supply in the same range.

This is not the thin and speculative air of the top of 2017 or the initial peak of 2021. It is similar to the denser structure of the “second wind” of the end of 2021, where expert holders and new entrants shared the top area, and the resolution took months.

This density explains why the place is dragged for so long. The US election rally last year attracted a broad swath of buyers in the $95k-$115k range and trapped them in a year of sideways trading.

With the short-term holder’s cost base already breached at around $112,000, any failed attempt to recover that level would trap newer buyers underwater while long-term holders sat on a stratified cost base scale just below the highs.

Futures are flat and ETF flows are revealing a faint support zone

The last drop exposed that structure: once the long futures started to relax, there was very little fresh demand between the $106k-$118k resistance area that Glassnode marked and the psychological handle of $100k, and ETF demand was no longer strong enough to absorb the forced selling.

The key difference now is that it sells. In 2017 and 2021, the supply near the top was mostly from short-term holders. After those peaks, the oldest, profitable coins are rotated out. Then, unrealized losses reached 15% of the market capitalization in six weeks, filling old air pockets.

In 2025, unrealized losses are about half of what they were in January 2022, despite BTC trading below $100k and hitting the wall.

Glassnode data shows that STHs have been underwater against their $111,900 cost base since October. Its realized profit-loss ratio fell below 0.21 near $98,000, which means more than 80% of the value that moved there was sold at a loss.

This is a classic capitulation by major buyers, not a broad LTH exit. Checkonchain confirms: almost half of the recently sold coins come from high-entry, recent buyers who exit as the market goes close to the wall.

This is why $95k still matters. It was a theoretical bull cycle “point of failure”; now the price is approaching. New data from Coinbase shows that BTC’s $95,900 sits deep in the long-term holder zone, where most coins remain stagnant. If this group remains firm, the wall can absorb forced STH and the sale of derivatives.

However, if Bitcoin cleanly loses $95,000, the roadmap is reasonably clear. The first shelf is located at about $85,000, the low “tantrum tariff”, where the point hammered a local bottom during previous political nervousness and briefly filled part of the air pocket of last year.

Below that is the True Market Mean at $82,000, which sits directly above the residual gap from the US election pump and would be a natural magnet for deeper flow. Just beyond those levels, the big older demand band between $50,000 and $75,000 re-enters the conversation.

How the risk profile of this cycle differs from 2022

There is another key difference from 2022 that the current price action has not canceled.

Then, the loss of the $45k base of the wall HODLers of that cycle was swift and brutal: the STH cost base gave way to $54k, the wall at $45k offered almost no support, and the market spread directly to the True Market Mean around $36k, intersecting a multi-year air market that went through the cycle.

In this cycle, the potential fall from the wall to the average is much shorter, and the underlying demand from the 2024 range is closer to the price. A move from $95k to the low $80ks would hurt, but it wouldn’t recreate the kind of deep, multi-year bear that followed the 2021 peaks.

The short-term backdrop remains fragile. Negative tilt ETF flows, redemptions replace the stable inflows that supported Bitcoin for most of the year. Perpetual funding and open interest are down since October’s deleveraging. Options markets now pay an implied volatility premium of 11% for puts over calls, signaling that traders are hedging for downside.

What happens next depends less on short-term traders than on holders who own most of the supply above and just below $95k.

If you hold your nerve, the wall can continue to act as a floor, giving the market time to rebuild demand. If they crack, the path through $85k and down towards the $82k average is already plotted on the chart on the chain.