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Bitcoin’s The greatest existential threat may now have a countdown as, according to crypto analyst Charles Edwards, the clock is ticking towards March 8, 2028, at exactly 11:23 am – the moment when Quantum computers could theoretically decrypt the private keys protecting every Bitcoin wallet and basically any other existing crypt.
The source of this estimate, Quantum Doom Clock, visualizes risk with scientific precision. He claims that in two years, four months and two days, quantum processors will reach the logical qubit scale needed to break the elliptic curve and RSA encryption, which are, in simpler terms, the mathematical foundations that secure almost all digital assets.
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Behind the projection are actual qubit growth curves, physical-to-logic conversion ratios and error rate assumptions published by IBM, Google and academic studies. In particular, the data model extrapolates the increase from 53 qubits (Google Sycamore, 2019) to more than 6,000 projects by the end of 2027.
The model was developed by Dr. Richard Carback, a cryptographic and digital privacy pioneer who co-founded the xx network, and Colton Dillion, a veteran crypto entrepreneur involved in multiparty computation wallets and SocialFi startups.
His model assumes that the progress of quantum computing will continue at its current exponential rate.
Doomsday scenario for crypto
The “doomsday”, also known as the “Q-Day” scenario, is not about collapse now, but about timing. Once a quantum processor reaches about 1,673 logical qubits, it could run Shor’s algorithm fast enough to derive private keys from public addresses, making them exist. Bitcoin and Ethereum vulnerable portfolios.
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Unless networks migrate to quantum-safe algorithms or post-quantum signatures before that limit, Edwards warns, crypto ownership could be gone overnight — a $2.5 trillion digital economy wiped out of math.
