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Crypto Reporter
Shalini Nagarajan
Crypto Reporter
Shalini Nagarajan
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Good morning Asia. This is what moves in front of the bell.
Bitcoin fell 2% in early Asia, slipping below $107,000 as whale profit booking and continued ETF flows weighed on sentiment.
The pullback extends the pressure from Red October, when a wash of $19b on October 19 set a weaker tone that bled into November. Traders say the move looks like consolidation after a volatile month, with some positioning for a base before the next leg higher.
Market snapshot
- Bitcoin: $106,961, down 0.7%
- Ether: $3,636, down 2.7%
- XRP: $2.35, down 3.4%
- Total crypto market cap: $3.64 trillion, down 1.6%
Institutional demand slows as new supply of Bitcoin outstrips accumulation
Chain flows support the cautious mood. For the first time in seven months, institutional demand is down below the rate of issuance of new currency, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.
It’s a sign that big buyers are backing off. This change aligns with a broader risk-taking stance across crypto.
Equities paint a different picture. Most major stock indexes rallied on Monday after news that Amazon would provide cloud services to OpenAI, while the dollar held at a three-month high against the euro as expectations for US rate cuts faded.
Wall Street ended the previous session stronger, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq supported by technology gains, although futures pointed lower, indicating a softer US opening.
In Asia, a surge in tech stocks lifted Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s TAIEX to record highs, while several regional markets tumbled after recent rallies.
Fed signals gauge path ahead as traders scale back interest rate bets
Politics remains the main macro thread. The Federal Reserve hiked last week as expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut at the next meeting in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” This line prevented traders from moving too hard in dovish bets.
Meanwhile, Fed officials on Monday offered mixed views on growth and inflation, and the ongoing US government shutdown delayed key data, complicating the reading for December. Markets now price a probability of about 70% of a cut of 25 basis points next month, from about 94% a week ago.
After the October Shakeout, Crypto Markets Seek Stability as Leverage Resets
Back in crypto, the October liquidation wave drained leverage and risk capital. Rebuilding that base takes time, which is why spot dips attract only selective offers and rallies quickly fade when supply hits exchanges.
“In many ways, the October correction did what it needed to: it de-leveraged and restored sentiment,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures.
“The data on the chain shows that the long-term holders are not capitulating, they are actively accumulating. Exchange flows remain steady, and this is historically a constructive sign>’
She added that November could start sideways as markets absorb the Fed’s comments. A softer inflation picture or a clearer easing message could spark a recovery, while Ethereum may follow the same path, with added support from network upgrades and growing institutional use of DeFi.
For now, the path of least resistance depends on the flows. If ETF redemptions slow and trade flows decrease, the spot could stabilize above recent lows. Until then, the market will trade from title to title, with macros and positions calling the shots.
