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By Francisco Rodrigues (All hours ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin briefly slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June as a wave of liquidations and changes in macro expectations triggered a broad crypto sell-off.
The leading cryptocurrency is now up more than 20% from the all-time high above $126,000 it set in early October. The broader crypto market, as measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), fell 2.6% in the last 24 hours and more than 27% in the last 30 days.
Selling has intensified over the past 24 hours with more than $1.7 billion in crypto positions liquidated, according to CoinGlass. Long traders bore the brunt of the losses.
“Since the ~$19B liquidation on 10/10, the markets have fallen lower,” Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk. “The current weakness reflects a mix of ongoing 10/10 digestion, a slightly more dovish Fed tone, and broader asset risk, with the Nasdaq, the closest crypto proxy, down ~2% on valuation concerns.”
The drawdown is seeing bitcoin now struggle defend a key levelits 50-week simple moving average, which has historically supported its long-term price recoveries. This level is just under $103,000.
“The sell-off is a reminder that liquidity remains thin, especially in long-tail alts, which is why we’re seeing excessive negative price action, further fueled by a market-wide flight to safety,” De Maere said.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday of $ 128 million Balancer hack raised new concerns about security in the decentralized financial ecosystem, a more chilling feeling.
As this situation, sentiment has taken a hit with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index now sitting on “fear”. Short-term catalysts are limited according to De Maere, although the reopening of the US government and supportive crypto legislation could support prices.
Stay tuned!
What to Watch
For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- November 5, 8 am: S&P Global Brazil Oct. SME Services (Prev. 46.3).
- November 5, 8:15 am: US October ADP Employment Change Est. 25K.
- November 5, 9:30 am: S&P Global Canada Oct. SME Services (Prev. 46.3).
- November 5, 9:45 am: S&P Global US October (final) Services PMI Est. 55.2.
- November 5, 10 a.m.: US ISM Oct. Services PMI Est. 50.8.
- November 5, 4:30 pm: decision of the interest rate of the central bank of Brazil. Est. 15%
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 5: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.54
Token events
For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Government votes and calls
- Decentraland DAO is voted on a $10,000 proposal to fund an independent audit of Regenesis Labs by community member “Maryana,” following concerns about the use of funds. Voting ends on November 5th.
- CoW DAO votes to authorize its Foundation to sell 50% of the DAO in MEV Blocker, which allows the core team to focus on core products and directing all sales proceeds to the treasury. Voting ends on November 5th.
- Ssv.network DAO votes to sell SSV for USDC at a lower price ($11-$20) to build reserves. Voting ends on November 5th.
- Unlock
- Token throw
- November 5: Exponent Line Schedule to start.
Conferences
For a more complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk »Crypto Week Ahead“.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The altcoin market remains in oversold territory after Tuesday’s grueling selloff that saw several tokens fall to their lowest in months.
- U crypto average relative strength index (RSI) is at 38/100, with tokens including OKB, SKY and FLR press figures up to 23/100. This suggests that while the overall crypto market is bearish, a short-term relief rally may be on the cards.
- Any suggestion of a bounce would be invalidated if bitcoin and ether break below its respective support levels at $99,000 and $3,100.
- If further downside in BTC and ETH were to occur, altcoins would fare worse due to a lack of liquidity and skewed levels of leverage. This means that altcoin order books do not have enough buy orders to absorb the selling pressure and subsequent liquidations, resulting in dramatic spikes on the side.
- Traders wonder if the recent “altcoin season” is officially over with most tokens, with the exception of privacy coins, eroding their rallies from July and August.
- The privacy coin narrative remains a key driver in the current market, while DCR and ZEC cooled on Wednesday, XMR rose 7% and the entire sector remains significantly higher in the past month.
Derivatives positioning
- The BTC futures market reflects growing caution. Open interest (OI) declined to $25.3 billion from $26 billion last week, suggesting traders are reducing leverage. Seen against the year-high BTC price, the drop indicates that the relative amount of leverage in the market has not kept pace with the appreciation of the asset.
- The three-month annualized base is suppressed to 3%-4%, indicating that the underlying trade is currently unattractive. Financing rates are mixed but low in the main locations (4%-9% annualized), reinforcing a lack of strong commitment to the trend and general caution of the market from the future.
- The bitcoin options market is showing mixed but volatile signals.
- Implied volatility (IV) is high across all timeframes, indicating high expectations of the next move. Structurally, the structure of term IV shows a short-term backwardation (downward slope) before resuming a long-term contango (upward slope).
- Despite this volatility, recent trading bias has returned to bullish, with 24-hour put-call volume tilting 58%-42% in favor of calls, indicating an active upside preference.
- The recent price drop was heavily influenced by leveraged contracts, with $1.7 billion in liquidations in the last 24 hours split 76%-24% in favor of long positions. ETH led the notional loss with $572 million liquidated.
- Crucially, the average long liquidation volume over the past two days of $1 billion is significantly higher than the seven-day average of $620 million, confirming the amplified impact of forced selling on current price action.
- Going forward, a rebound may face immediate resistance, with a key price level at $102,500 having $124 million in potential liquidations.
Market movements
- BTC is up 1.79% as of 4 pm ET Wednesday at $102,069.70 (24 hours: -2.41%)
- ETH is up 3.03% to $3,310.76 (24 hours: -6.74%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.01% to 3,209.70 (24 hours: -3.56%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps to 3.01%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0036% (3.8905% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 100.21
- Gold futures are down 0.44% at $3,977.80
- Silver futures are up 0.44% at $47.50
- Nikkei 225 closed up 2.5% at 50,212.27
- The Hang Seng closed unchanged at 25,935.41
- FTSE is unchanged at 9,707.29
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.64% at 5,624.23
- The DJIA closed Tuesday up 0.53% at 47,085.24
- The S&P 500 closed up 1.17% at 6,771.55
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.04% at 23,348.64
- The S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.64% at 29,777.82
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.15% at 2,985.42
- US 10-year Treasury rate down 1 bps to 4.081%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.25% at 6,784.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.41% at 25,470.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,214.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC Dominance: 60.66% (-0.19%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03248 (0.25%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,091 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $41.43
- Total Fees: 3.95 BTC / $408,873
- CME Futures Open Interest: 135,465 BTC
- BTC gold price: 24.1 oz
- BTC vs Gold market cap: 6.80%
Technical analysis
- The weekly bitcoin price chart is currently trading below the key support level near $107,000.
- A confirmed weekly candle close below this mark would be a significant bearish signal, turning core support into formidable resistance above and signaling a break in the prevailing bullish trend.
- It is crucial to monitor if BTC can regain and close above $107,000 at the end of the week to prevent a structural trend reversal.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed Tuesday at $307.32 (-6.99%), +1.71% at $312.56 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $111.25 (-5.61%), +1.84% at $113.30
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.17 (-10.64%), +0.74% at $31.40
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.75 (-8.97%), +2.86% at $47.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.62 (-6.68%), +1.87% at $16.93
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $19.27 (-6.97%), +0.49% at $19.37
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.74 (-5.07%), +0.78% at $21.91
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.22 (-6.89%), +0.62% at $16.32
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $58.44 (-4.91%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.13 (-8.18%)
Crypto Treasury Company
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $246.99 (-6.68%), +1.63% at $251.01
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23.95 (-5.75%), +1.04% at $24.20
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.68 (-10.77%), +1.88% at $11.90
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.5 (-8.85%), +2.86% at $3.60
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.76 (-8.33%)
ETF flows
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: – $566.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $60.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.34 million
ETF Spot ETH
- Daily net flows: – $219.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $14.03 billion
- Total holding of ETH ~ 6.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Sleep
- Bitcoin at Make or Break Level as China Suspends 24% Tariff on US (CoinDesk): The continued easing of trade tensions could eliminate a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy, supporting increased risk-taking, including in financial markets.
- Crypto Hit by Bitcoin Whales Dumping $45 Billion in Bets (Bloomberg): Markus Thielen of 10x Research said that long-time holders sold about 400,000 coins in a month, accounts with 100 to 1,000 coins stopped buying and the relaxation could persist into the spring.
- Japan’s Crypto Players Clash for Market Share on Hopes of Ease of Regulation (Reuters): The jump points to growing risk appetite in Japan, with consumer price inflation outpacing wages and the sting of the 2014 and 2018 crypto exchange violations fading.
- Adam Back and Switzerland’s FUTURE Secure 28M Swiss Francs to Build Bitcoin Treasury (CoinDesk): The company, under the leadership of prominent figures such as Richard Byworth, Sebastien Hess and Adam Back, has raised 28 million Swiss francs ($35 million) to expand its balance sheet-driven bitcoin treasury model.
