Gemini Moves Toward Prediction Markets in Bid to Broaden Its Business: Report

The parent company of the Gemini crypto exchange is preparing to enter the prediction market business to generate new revenue streams and offset financial windfalls.

Gemini Space Station Inc. filed for approval with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch a derivatives exchange in May, registration an entity called “Gemini Titan” for the operation of a “designated contract market”, according to thirteen public. documents on the CFTC website.

Gemini had been in talks to launch recording-related products as soon as possible, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. The exchange aims to offer services directly rather than through third-party partners.

The move puts it in competition with Kalshi, the only other active event market regulated by the CFTC, and Polymarket, which is poised to reopening in the United States

It comes as the prediction markets have increased in activity, with weekly trading volume hitting a all time high of $2 billion in the last week of October.

But Gemini’s foray into the prediction markets is not new.

In August 2024, the Company of Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss submitted a comment letter to the CFTC in response to its proposed rule on event contracts.

Gemini argued that the rule exceeded the CFTC’s statutory authority and warned that its blanket ban on “event contracts involving gambling” would hinder prediction markets.

If Gemini were to list event contracts in the United States, it would need to operate through a Designated Contracts Market regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act.

The designation requires the exchange to comply with 23 core principles covering areas such as market supervision, financial integrity, governance standards and system safeguards to ensure fair and orderly markets.

Gemini’s foray into the prediction markets comes as the exchange operator struggles with declining revenue, heavy net losses and a drop in sales revenue after September. public debut.

Shares have fallen about 49% since the company’s mid-September IPO, closing at $16.29 on Tuesday, per Google Finance. data. The stock opened at $32 on its first day of trading after trading at $28 per share, but has lost nearly half of its value since then.

While the company “proved its model well enough at the IPO,” it appears it still needs “a breakout business” of its own, Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, said. Decrypt.

The company posted a net loss of $282 million in the first six months of 2025, nearly double its $158 million deficit for all of 2024. Revenue fell to $68.6 million in the first half of 2025 from $74.3 million in the year-earlier period, according to an August SEC filing. filing.

More than 80% of Gemini’s trading volume now comes from institutional clients rather than retail users, limiting potential growth in a market where competitors like Coinbase and Robinhood have a stronger foothold. rarelythe presence

Decrypt has reached out to Gemini for further comment.