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The XRP ETF discussion has moved from Crypto Twitter to Wall Street trading desks.
Analysts say that the first months of inflows could exceed $ 1 billion.
SEC rule changes have simplified the listing of spot crypto funds.
Approval is not guaranteed, but momentum is building quickly.
Talk about an XRP spot (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) switched from Crypto Twitter to real trading desks.
Two factors are the guide. First, ETF specialists Nate Geraci and Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan say the market is underestimating the demand for a spot XRP ETF. Geraci warned that investors are “severely” underestimating the flows, and Hougan said the fund could reach about $1 billion in assets in its first few months of trading.
Second, the US market infrastructure for spot crypto funds has evolved. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted generic listing standards that will shorten the approval path for some spot crypto ETFs, and exchanges have already started listing altcoin products under the new framework.
None of this guarantees an XRP approval, but it explains why the conversation turned serious.
A spot XRP ETF holds XRP with a qualified custodian and issues shares that track the net asset value of the fund through the standard creation and redemption process. This structure is important because it allows XRP exposure in brokerage accounts, advisor model portfolios and withdrawal platforms, offering a familiar relationship and tax treatment.
It is different from a futures-based product, which tracks derivatives rather than the asset itself and can diverge from spot prices. The SEC’s September 2025 rule change did not approve every crypto ETF, but created a uniform starting line instead of a one-time approval.
In mid-September 2025, the SEC adopted generic listing standards that would allow major exchanges to list certain spot crypto trading products (ETPs) under a uniform rule set instead of one-time approvals. The change simplified the listing process, but did not eliminate regulatory oversight or review for products that do not qualify.
Then came the October government shutdown, which slowed staff reviews. Even so, a handful of spot altcoin products, including Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR), progressed through existing paths. Those should be seen as leading cases, not blanket approval.
For XRP, many famous issuers have already presented or signaled their intention. Times may also change as the SEC considers three familiar questions:
Monitoring: Are the markets monitorable and resistant to manipulation?
Storage: Is asset protection robust and secure?
Investor Protection: Do prices and disclosures hold up in the real world?
In short, the road is open, products are lined up, but no US XRP ETF has yet received approval.
The bullish case is based on three factors:
Distribution: Advisors prefer ETFs to opening exchange accounts for clients. An ETF unlocks registered investment advice and retirement channels.
Infrastructure already built: Authorized participants, market makers and surveillance arrangements established for Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) ETFs can extend to other spot products.
A distinct thesis: XRP’s long-standing pitch centers on cross-border payments and settlement, giving allocators a distinct narrative from The digital gold of Bitcoin.“
Based on that setup, Geraci and Hougan argue that first-wave demand could exceed expectations, potentially surpassing $1 billion early. It is a projection, not a promise, but it explains why commercial banks are already model scenarios.
Even with generic standards, approval is not automatic. The SEC may also question whether spot XRP markets are sufficiently resistant to manipulation and whether shared surveillance is robust. It can also examine whether the custody and insurance arrangements are adequate and whether the pricing sources are reliable in all locations.
The government shutdown has created delays that may hold up decisions until the end of the year. The route is shorter than it was in 2023-2024, but it still has checkpoints.
Investors outside the US already have access to physical ETPs that hold XRP directly.
Two of the largest are 21Shares XRP ETP (AXRP), listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange, and CoinShares Physical XRP, available on various European exchanges. These are not US ETFs; are locally governed ETPs with different investor protections and tax treatment.
US investors can also buy XRP on compliant crypto exchanges, but that path involves self-custody decisions, exchange counterparty risk and fragmented trading spaces.
That’s the wrong way to think.
Bitcoin’s investment history centers on scarcity and macro hedging, while XRP focuses on payment infrastructure and rapid settlement. If an XRP ETF launches, it will not replace the role of Bitcoin. Expand the menu for advisors looking for thematic payment allocation in traditional accounts.
Prices and liquidity will always depend on the underlying spot markets and the ETF’s ability to track them closely. The efficiency of creation and redemption, spreads and market depth of the market play a role.
Indeed, Wall Street’s interest in an XRP ETF is not just clicking. The mechanics are now familiar, the distribution channels are in place, and credible analysts believe that demand could surprise on the upside.
But the SEC still needs to approve the product, and the timing may change with staffing changes and market quality reviews. If you follow this story, separate the chances of approval from the investment case: look at the files, understand how the ETF holds and the price of XRP, and be clear about the differences between US ETFs and non-US ETPs available today.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.