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Bitcoin onchain data reveals that the market could be entering a macro downtrend.
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The psychological level at $100,000 remains the main BTC support for now.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a four-month low of $98,900 on Tuesday, as analysts said BTC was “transitioning into a bear market.”
Given by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that Bitcoin’s price action had set a new range on all-time lows, and market observers are looking at the following key support levels below.
Bitcoin enters the bear market
Private wealth manager Swissblock said Bitcoin’s risk signal destabilized as selling pressure intensified in recent days.
Swissblock highlighted that the indicator is “still in a low-risk regime”, as shown in the chart below.
Related: Bitcoin shows exhaustion as analysts say $125K target unlikely in 2025
However, “if it goes into high risk, it would signal a potential trend change,” the private wealth manager said, adding:
“If the indicator enters and remains at high risk, it would suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market, marking a structural change rather than a short-term correction.”
Echoing this observation, onchain data provider Glassnode he indicated that the monthly financing paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals decreased by about 62%, from $338 million per month in mid-August to $127 million per month as of Tuesday.
This signals reduced bullish leverage, which often precedes price tops and suggests a possible bearish change in the broader market trend.
Glassnode said:
“This highlights a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders become reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.”
“Bear market confirmed”, he said Crypto analyst Mikybull in a Wednesday X post highlighting the USDt crash (USDT) market dominance by an inverse head and shoulders pattern in the weekly time frame.
“Similar formation in previous cycles led to a bear market,” Mikybull Crypto he said in a follow-up post.
A break in USDT dominance would signal a growing stablecoin preference, indicating risk aversion and capital flowing out of BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
This typically pressures the BTC price down in the short term, reflecting bearish crypto market sentiment and potential further decline as capital is sidelined.
Look at these Bitcoin price levels next
The last sell-off saw the BTC/USD pair shed 20% from its all-time high above $126,000.
Bitcoin also fell below the short-term holder cost base of around $113.00, a structure that has historically preceded the start of a medium-term bearish phase, as recent buyers continue to capitulate.
Bitcoin has now “lost support at the 85th percentile cost base” around $109,000, he said Glassnode in a Tuesday post on X, adding:
“The next key level is around the 75th percentile cost base (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.”
“$BTC Now Breaks Below Its Oct. 10 Low,” Trader Daan Crypto Trades he said in a post on Tuesday on X, referring to the On October 10, the crypto market crashed which sent Bitcoin to $103,500 on Bitstamp.
“This is the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle East war fund in June.”
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map reveals a high concentration of liquidations near the June lows, around $98,000, with the yellow area indicating a cluster of leveraged positions, suggesting it is a key support level.
If $98,000 is broken, it could trigger a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to close positions and drive prices to $95,000, where the next major liquidity cluster is located.
On the upside, ask orders build around $102,500, with the next big cluster between $103,000 and $105,000.
As Cointelegraph reportedselling by long-term Bitcoin holders, capitulation by short-term holders, and a daily candlestick. close under $100,000 The psychological level could push the price of BTC up to $72,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
