Morning Minute: Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K for First Time Since May

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. Analysis and opinions expressed are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the morning minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s big news:

• Crypto majors fall another 2-5% but start to recover; BTC at $102,300
• Mando vs KBM bet settles as Bitcoin briefly slips below $100k
• ZKsync shares plans for ZK token utility, pump 25%
• Gemini shares plans to launch a prediction market
• Sequans DAT sells $100M in Bitcoin, becomes the last DAT seller

📉 Bitcoin breaks $100K for the first time since May

Bitcoin finally cracked below $100,000 for the first time since the summer.

But beneath the carnage, there are reasons for optimism.

📌 What happened

BTC fell ~6% on Tuesday to fall just under $100K, triggering a wave of more than $2B in long liquidations through exchanges.

The sales cascade solved one of the longest prediction markets on Myriad, with $100k officially hitting $120k in the now infamous “Mando vs KBM” bet that KBM one (verse one for the bulls).

Looking at the risk curve, ETH and SOL follow Bitcoin, each by 10-15% with ETH falling below $3,100 and SOL going below $150.

Several alts and memes have fallen even further, with many down 30-60%+ on the month.

All while sentiment remains at Extreme Fear (thought 2 points higher than Monday).

But (and there is a but) – a recovery is apparently in the works.

This morning, BTC is back at $102,000 and climbing; ETH is back above $3,340 and SOL is closing at $160.

🗣️ What they say

“-38% in ETH from the top until the last cycle after breaking the successive ATHs, we saw drawdowns (and recoveries after each) of: -37% in February ’21 -23% in April ’21 -60% in May-July ’21, -34% in September ’21 each was an existential crisis maybe this is the beginning of the bull, or maybe this is the beginning of the bull”. – DCinvestor, on X

🧠 Because it is important

It’s easy to freak out in these circumstances (and you wouldn’t be alone).

But there are reasons for optimism.

For one, pullbacks like this are common for major crypto assets. Yes, the volatility is not fun to endure at the moment, but it is what has historically been the price to gain out of greatness.

Second, the shutdown of the American government (a large and growing economy in the United States) shows signs of promise that it could end soon.

And the primary case of the macro bull that has driven this entire cycle is still alive. ETF inflows are underway, 401k access has arrived, government spending is still on the rise (debasement trade), the US is actively embracing Bitcoin and building crypto in the US has never been easier.

Don’t capitulate and let the Bankers steal your Bitcoin…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 titles that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are down another 2-5%, but recover after bad Bitcoin under $100k; BTC -2% to $102,100, ETH -5% to $3,320, BNB -1% to $945, SOL -2% to $157
• ZK (+24%), DASH (+12%), ASTER (+12%) and HYPE (+9%) drove the first engines
• Liquidations surpassed $1.7B on Tuesday as Bitcoin slipped below $100k and ETH fell near $3,000
• Fear and greed earned 2 points at 23 but remains in Extreme Fear
• Berachain he picked up his chain after a ~ day closed after the exploitation of Balancer, the funds are returned
• Chain link introduced the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE)which allows institutions to implement smart contracts on multiple blockchains with built-in compliance and related financial integration
• Gemini plans to launch a prediction market and applied for a DCM license from the CFTC in May
• Digital marathon (MARA) returned breaks a record in Q3 to ~$252M as they continue to expand into AI computing services

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

In Memes

• The leaders of Memecoin they are mixed after their recent decline; DOGE -1%, Shiba -2%, PEPE -2%, PENGU even, BONK +1%, TRUMP -1%, SPX +4%, and FARTCOIN +2%
• jelly briefly spike to $500M before returning nearly 60% to $222M
• 1 (+80% to $27 M) and ALCH (+27% to $70 M) were notable drivers

💰 Token, Airdrop and Protocol Tracker

Here is a summary of the main token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🚚 What is happening in NFT?

Here is the list of other notable titles from the day in NFT: