Morning Minute: Crypto Slides into “Extreme Fear” as Bitcoin Tumbles

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. Analysis and opinions expressed are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the morning minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s big news:

• Crypto majors fall another 3-8%; BTC at $104,500
• Fear & Greed is coming to Extreme Fear for the first time in months
• Berachain stops its blockchain after the Balancer exploit
• Strategy has announced its latest financial instrument STRE
• MegaETH prepares to issue $1.3B in refunds

😨 Crypto Slides in “Extreme Fear”

Crypto sentiment has collapsed.

Does this mean the bottom is near?

📌 What happened

U Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that the market is now in the “Extreme Fear” territory with a score around 21.

This marks a dramatic swing from the recent “Greed” levels posted just last month and neutral ratings from a few days ago.

For those who are not familiar, every day the index measures six key signals: volatility, volume/momentum, social media, polls, dominance and trends.

Now it reads:

• Volatility is high
• Volume and momentum have collapsed
• Social indicators are moving downwards
• Bitcoin dominance rises higher, meaning money is fleeing alts in safe perception of BTC
• Trending data shows spikes in queries like ‘bitcoin price manipulation’

This comes just a day after new data emerged showing that long-term Bitcoin holders sold ~$40B of Bitcoin in October (405,000).

🗣️ What they say

“Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.” – Site Alternative.ME

🧠 Because it is important

Sentiment often dictates behavior, which in turn influences flows, liquidity, and ultimately price.

• Risk models for the flow: When fear rules, investors wait on the sidelines, even if ETFs are launched or infrastructure is expanding. That delays the capital.
• Liquidity stress: Extreme fear often coincides with liquidations, margin jumps, and forced selling (see October 10 and its fall)
• Narrative reset: We were talking about “institutional adoption” and “ETF expansion.” Now the story changes to “survival, consolidation, risk management”.

So what does this mean for the near term?

Historically, when the index plunges into fear, it can precede the next leg, until other factors align.

This is your “buy the fear” signal.

It’s hard to predict what that specific signal will be right now, but stay tuned.

It could be as simple as monitoring flows from OG holders.

They just dumped $40B on the market with only ~$4B in ETF + DAT buy pressure to offset it. And Bitcoin was still at $107k.

It is bullish.

Once the holders are done selling (or at least taking a break), there will be a new foundation for Bitcoin to walk on.

And once it gets back over $120k or so, the 4 year cycle will officially be broken. It is set to grind higher in 2026.

For now, expect more time in the fear range.

But this too shall pass…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 titles that caught my eye:

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

In Memes

• The leaders of Memecoin they are very red; DOGE -5%, Shiba -5%, PEPE -6%, PENGU -9%, BONK -9%, TRUMP -7%, SPX -17%, and FARTCOIN -18%
• gelatin jelly (+77% to $195M) led Solana movers; ZEREBRO + 35%, ARC + 27% and SPSN (+ 100%) were other notable drivers

💰 Token, Airdrop and Protocol Tracker

Here is a summary of the main token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🚚 What is happening in NFT?

Here is the list of other notable titles from the day in NFT:

• The NFT heads they were very red; Punks -1% to 36.5 ETH, Pudgy -5% to 5.5, BAYC -9% to 5.8 ETH; Hypurr’s -12% at 845 HYPE
• No notable engines
• Adam Weitzman took over the CryptoDickButts project