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The Michael Saylor Strategy (MSTR) does not need to sell part of its Bitcoin stash to cover its debt in the next significant crisis of the crypto market, according to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo.
“Liquidation of MSTR in the next bear market? I doubt it,” Willy Woo he said in a place X on Wednesday.
Strategy’s debt consists primarily of convertible senior notes. The strategy is set to resolve their conversions as they fall due by paying either cash, common stock, or a combination of the two, at their election.
Safe strategy from liquidation in the next bear market
By September 15, 2027, the holder puts the date right, the Strategy will have approximately $1.01 billion in outstanding debt. To avoid having to sell Bitcoin (BTC) to break even, Strategy shares must trade above $183.19, Woo said.
This price roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $91,502, and assuming a multiple of net asset value (mNAV) of 1, he added.
Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist said that “Bitcoin would have to perform horribly” in the next market downturn for the Strategy to start selling Bitcoin.
“It would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for the Strategy,” they said added. The strategy contains about 641,205 Bitcoin, which is worth about $64 billion at the time of publication, according to at Saylor Tracker.
Shares of Strategy closed trading Tuesday at a seven-month low, falling nearly 6.7% on the day to $246.99. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past seven days, according to at CoinMarketCap.
Woo hints at chance of ‘partial liquidation’
While Woo did not expect a liquidation in the next bear market, he warned that it is possible if Bitcoin fails to rally strongly during the anticipated 2028 bull market.
Related: Bitcoin shows exhaustion as analysts say $125K target unlikely in 2025
“Ironically, there is a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC does not rise in value fast enough in a bull market before 2028,” said Willy Woo.
Some crypto executives, such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in 2030.
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