Shutdown wipes out October CPI, leaving Bitcoin hanging

For months, crypto traders have timed leverage, funding, and liquidity around the monthly US inflation print.

This week, those who had hoped for the recent vote reopening the government should bring new macro data were disappointed to find nothing on the tape. The Bureau of Labor Statistics he said in October that

“No further releases will be rescheduled or produced until regular government services resume.”

The latest full CPI report, covering September, was released late on October 24, after normal operations were interrupted by the shutdown.

The level of the index of all articles has reached 324.80, with the title and core inflation both at 3.0% year on year. Business economics currently lists December 10 as the next expected date on the CPI calendar.

Why the Missing October Print Matters for Markets

There is now a gap for October that can never be filled. Because the closure covers the entire data collection period, the field staff could not gather the price sample that supports the CPI. That can be collected and included in the December update, but the indication is that now there will be a gap.

White House Press Secretary hit the gap on the Democrats, stating,

“Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical System with the October CPI and employment reports never being released.”

Without that survey, the BLS could not issue an update on November 13, the standard date when markets would have received the October reading. Officials pointed out that October may not be reconstructable even after operations return to normal, since there is no primary data for reference.

For crypto markets, the absence of a number mattered more than any hypothetical value. Bitcoin and Ethereum entered the week positioned for a volatility event that never materialized. Although the volatility came indiscriminately.

Spot Bitcoin fell around 6% on the session, with a sea ​​of ​​red throughout the crypto market. Liquidity remains thin, and the derivatives open the lowest interest, a behavior that aligned with a market waiting for macroeconomic information that does not materialize.

The missing CPI broke the usual chain that connects inflation data to crypto price action.

Normally, a softer press feeds expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve path. Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and risk assets, including Bitcointake an offer.

A warmer press does the opposite, keeping expectations for tighter policy and pressuring long-term assets.

Without data, interest rates have no fresh input for real yields or breakeven inflation. The Fed’s outlook is shifting to a trade of speech, market-based inflation swaps and secondary indicators.

That macrovacuum has pushed crypto further into its role as a proxy for expectations about future policy rather than a simple high-beta extension of stocks.

Without CPI, desks rely more on liquidity, ETF flows, and options positioning. Funding rates on major futures pairs compressed as new directional leverage held out.

All this redirects attention to December 10, the next date on the CPI calendar. Trading Economics lists that day as the “next release”, although the value field is empty, emphasizing that it is a placeholder rather than a confirmed dataset.

The Market Impact of October’s Unfillable CPI Gap

Markets now have a three-way price range for what that date could bring.

One way is for the BLS to run some form of October CPI reconstruction using partial samples, imputation or model-based estimates.

If this happens, merchants may treat the number as a lower quality than a normal print, since the underlying survey does not follow standard methodology. The reaction in crypto could be modest.

If the monthly change in the title lands at 0.2% or below, in line with a controlled disinflation trend, the usual pattern would be the softness of the dollar, a pullback in yields, and a rebound of Bitcoin.

Ethereum is likely to outperform in the next one to two days, as traders re-engage with higher beta risk. Smaller altcoins tend to follow, often moving in the 5-12% range once liquidity shifts the risk curve.

If the reconstructed number or a clean picture for November falls in a “sticky” area around 0.3-0.4% month on month, the message for policy becomes less clear.

Yields can move in a narrow range, and the crypto could end the day close to where it started. Bitcoin can trade flat, with altcoins underperforming as traders cut marginal risk.

Funding rates in perpetual futures could tip into slightly negative territory as short-term hedging flows dominate.

A third path is that the inflation data comes in hot at 0.5% or above. That result reinforces expectations that the Fed will need to keep policy tight for longer, pulling the dollar higher and pushing Treasury yields across the curve.

In the previous episodes, such combinations were associated with an intraday fall of 3-6% in Bitcoin, stronger movements in Ethereum, and a wide deleveraging in altcoins.

Liquidation volumes in such washouts often flow two to four times above recent norms, as overleveraged positions are forced out.

How the CPI Void Reshapes Short-Term Macro Trading

The most unusual scenario is that December 10 arrives with no October CPI at all, because the BLS decides that the missing survey cannot be credibly reconstructed or additional delays occur in the pipeline.

In that world, the next clean reading would reflect conditions in November, and the gap between hard inflation data points would stretch to nearly two months.

Treasuries would need to lean more heavily on breakeven markets and inflation swaps to anchor expectations. The term “premium across the curve” could embed a fatter risk buffer for the uncertainty surrounding true price dynamics.

Business economists currently predict continued inflationary pressure in the coming year, with the CPI rising every month.

For digital assets, a world with unreliable or irregular inflation data introduces a new type of macro regime.

Crypto becomes more of a “macro-smoothed” asset class, trading on slower forces such as ETF flows, structural demand from long-only allocators, corporate balance sheet decisions, and dollar liquidity plumbing.

Short-term data-driven volatility would fall away, replaced by longer episodes of uncertainty punctuated by political communication and idiosyncratic crypto events.

That regime will likely strengthen Bitcoin’s status as the sector’s benchmark. When macroeconomic uncertainty is high, but the data is scattered, traders have a lower appetite for tokens further on the risk spectrum.

Capital tends to consolidate into assets with deeper liquidity, clearer narratives and more developed derivatives markets. Altcoins that rely on high leverage or speculative momentum for price support may find these conditions scarce until regular macroeconomic relations resume.

The CPI gap also raises the importance of alternative data sources and nowcasting models that attempt to infer inflation from high-frequency inputs such as card spending, transportation rates, or online prices.

Traditional macro desks already track those indicators, but without a monthly BLS checkpoint, they carry more weight.

Crypto traders may incorporate such instruments more systematically if the formal inflation pipeline remains unstable.

For now, the story of the CPI is not about a surprise or a surprise, but about an empty line in the macro calendar.

The last confirmed reading shows an index level of 324.80 for September with an inflation of 3.0% on the main and core measures.

The next entry is a blank field on December 10 that may or may not contain the missing data from October. Crypto markets are trading around this absence, waiting to see if the most watched inflation gauge in the world reappears or if the macro vacuum persists.