This Pattern Has Emerged Three Times Since Late 2023, Triggering BTC Price Corrections

Bitcoin BTC$101,828.33 briefly it fell below $100,000 for the first time since June on Tuesday, reaching lows of around $98,951. The drop took the largest cryptocurrency below two key support levels needed to sustain the current bull market, fueling concerns that the decline may gather steam.

The two levels, the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 365-day exponential moving average (EMA), are currently $102,055 and $99,924, respectively. Both have already been tested during this bull cycle.

In August 2024, bitcoin used the 365-day SMA, the average closing price over that period that gives equal weight to each, as a key support level around $48,963, while briefly falling below the EMA price, which gives more weight to recent readings. So during April”so many rates“Bitcoin fell as low as $76,500, breaking below both moving averages before recovering shortly thereafter.

Where does the sales pressure come from?

The selling pressure continues to come from long term holdersdefined as investors who have held their bitcoin for at least 155 days. The supply held by this cohort is now around 14.4 million BTC, up from more than 14.7 million BTC at the peak in July.

This marks the third notable wave of sales from this group since the end of 2023. Each time added downward pressure leading to price consolidation or even correction – drops of 10% or more – after a period of price rallies. The previous instance occurred during the November 2024 rally following President Trump’s election victory.