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Glassnode data shows that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that can indicate a bearish signal, is imminent, but with a catch.
The 50-day moving average for bitcoin at $110,669 is now on the verge of breaking below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, potentially triggering the death cross. This crossover is widely seen in technical analysis as a bearish signal because it reflects the weakening of short-term momentum relative to the longer-term trend.
However, this can also act as a possible positive signal.
Bitcoin is currently down about 25% from its October all-time high around $126,000 and this correction has been going on for about 41 days. Despite the reputation of the death cross, this would be the fourth occurrence of the death cross, as the cycle began in 2023 and each previous instance has been aligned with a major local background.
In September 2023, bitcoin climbed close to $25,000, in August 2024, during the yen carry trade unwind, it found support around $49,000, and then in April 2025, during the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC climbed below $75,000.
In the current configuration, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000 and in all four previous cases, the market has reached its bottom just before the cross of death, which raises the question of whether the same pattern can occur again.
Is this time different?
This current drawdown is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin fell below $75,000 during the rate turmoil.
The April correction was deeper and longer than the current correction, with bitcoin falling about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and spending about 79 days trending lower before bottoming in the first week of April. With current selloff of 25% and 41 days, maybe more downside even possible.
However, the broader environment now includes the end of the US government shutdown on November 12. 2019 arrestwhen bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took until February 9, 2019 for bitcoin to recover, about two weeks.
This time bitcoin has already dropped up to 10% since reopening. The question now is whether the same pattern will play out again.
