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- Despite recent growth, PC shipments are set to slow in 2025, Canalys predicts
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and Windows 11 upgrade costs are to blame
- Import tariffs could raise PC prices by up to 46%
New Canalys research has confirmed recent healthy growth in the US pc the market, with shipments growing by 7% annually to 17.9 million units in the third quarter of 2024, but the outlook for the near future is not so positive.
The firm said the market’s recovery could slow in the coming months due to potential headwinds related to macroeconomic policies – a result of Trump’s upcoming presidency.
Other factors, such as a weaker moment in the Windows refresh cycle despite the outgoing OS, Windows 10lose support in October 2025, they are also willing to impact the market.
The US PC market faces upcoming challenges
With quarterly growth expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025, Canalys predicts a shrinking market in the second quarter, with third and fourth quarter growth barely in the single digits.
The expected growth of 2% for 2025 as a whole will be significantly less than the 6% expected in 2024. Last year’s figures have not yet been released.
Despite the slowdown in growth, the division of buyers remains fairly consistent, with consumers accounting for around 37% of purchases and business customers taking 43-44% of the market. Government and education customers make up the remaining buyers.
Canalys analyst Greg Davis said: “With the 2024 US presidential election drawing to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near term as they have been in the last year or two.”
The company’s release cites recent research from the Consumer Technology Association, which suggests that proposed tariffs under Trump’s future leadership could increase. laptop and tablet prices by as much as 46%. Smartphones It could also see a 26% price increase following proposed tariffs of 10-20% on imports from most countries, and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.
A struggling market and rising costs mark a significant shift from Canalys’ expectations from September 2024, when the company said US PC shipments could grow by 6% in 2024 and 2025.
