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Features writer
Olga Primakova
Features writer
Olga Primakova
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Elena Bozhkova
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Elena Bozhkova
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin closed October with a strong correction but avoided structural damage.
- The price has been consolidating between $105,000 and $116,000, showing balanced pressure from buyers and sellers.
- Analysts see the current phase as a reset rather than the end of the cycle. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain steady after October’s outflows, reflecting cautious confidence.
- Liquidity and sentiment remain the key drivers for a potential year-end rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed October on a pessimistic note, moving in step with the broader crypto market. The community is divided. Some believe that BTC still needs to sweep liquidity below current levels before a new rally can begin. Others are less optimistic, suggesting that the bull cycle may already be over.
As of October 31, Bitcoin’s annual return is approximately +53%. With two months left before the end of 2025, the question remains whether the currency can regain momentum or investor enthusiasm has already cooled.
As experts note, there is still room for a deeper pullback and a possible test of the $90,000 level, while buyers show little conviction to break the $116,000 level.
Looking at the annual returns of Bitcoin, the last five years have been mostly positive – above 50% per year, except for 2022, when BTC fell by 62%. This consistent resilience is part of what has earned Bitcoin its status as “digital gold.” In comparison, the price of spot gold increased by about 35% in 2024, marking its best performance in the last five years. This force highlights how unstable the global environment remains.
If Bitcoin takes a more pessimistic path and loses its $100,000 support level, can it still be considered digital gold? In this Cryptonews monthly reportwe explore what lies ahead for the market’s leading assets.
“This feels like a reset, not a cycle peak”
The chart below highlights the price of Bitcoin after the sharp selloff on October 10th. Compared to Ethereum and altcoins, Bitcoin showed greater resistance during the correction. BTC is currently trading between $116,000 and $105,000, moving in what looks like a ping-pong game.
Whenever the price drops towards $106,000, it returns to the upper end of the range near $116,000. For now, the $105,000 support is holding, but there is still no breakthrough in either direction. Neither buyers nor sellers seem to be in control.
Cais Mana, Co-Founder and Head of Product at TEN Protocolhe said Cryptonews that the current structure does not signal the end of the cycle, but rather a mid-cycle reset. He adds that a deeper correction could be followed by a sharp rebound if macro conditions improve:
I don’t think the cycle is over. No euphoria yet, no sales frenzy, no blow-off tops, no mass FOMO. We have seen large ETF flows, but the average investor has not appeared. Could BTC tag $90,000 on more macro pressure? Possible. If the Fed eases and liquidity returns, we’ll likely have a last leg higher – BTC $120,000, ETH mid-$5,000, alts ripping. That’s when the euphoria overflows.
Talking with Cryptonews, Mary Carol, CEO of StealthExagree that the path forward depends heavily on liquidity and capital inflows. She notes that while the setup for a year-end rally is here, it’s not guaranteed:
It is possible, but conditional. Historically, Q4 is often stronger, and the seasonality of the market plus the improvement of liquidity in the chain are all positive winds.
According to Carola, the outlook for a new all-time high depends on several key factors aligned:
Reaching a new ATH in November-December will depend on three things in sync: a renewed wave of notable net flows, the absence of a major macro shock, and constructive optics on regulation. If these are aligned, a year-end push is plausible. Otherwise, consolidation in the current range is more likely. I frame it as a driven scenario rather than a binary yes/no, as the probability increases materially if liquidity and inflows match.
Institutional investors are cautious, but they are returning to Bitcoin
The beginning of October brought a wave of institutional activity in Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass. On October 6, flows reached more than $1 billion, followed by another strong day on October 10, shortly before the market crash.
At that point, sentiment was very bullish: ETF inflows were on the rise, Bitcoin was testing new highs, and altcoins were taking a hit. In retrospect, the setup now looks like a classic trap that pushed many traders into long positions before the correction. When prices fell on October 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.5 billion, a major move by any standard.
However, throughout the rest of the month, the flows stabilized. There were many smaller outlets, but still stable influences. The balance between the two suggests that investors remain cautious, but have not exited the market.
That pattern reflects the sideways action of Bitcoin’s price, as the asset consolidates between $105,000 and $116,000. Carola notes that no one group currently dictates the pace of the market. Instead, it is a coordinated dance between different types of capital:
For now, there is no single actor setting the pace. It is more accurate to say that the market is orchestrated by a mixture of passive flows, including the allocation of ETFs and treasury managers, active liquidity providers such as market makers and OTC banks, and risk hedging behavior by institutional banks.
She adds that the dominant force shaping Bitcoin’s range is not retail speculation, but large pools of long-term capital:
Retail appears at the margins, but it is the large long-term capital pools such as ETFs, exchanges and custody providers that increasingly determine how wide or narrow ranges become. Together, liquidity providers and institutional allocators set the pace by deciding where and when to post big bids and offers, as macro headlines and policy signals provide the beats.
Bitcoin Survived the Shakeout
The October correction was strongbut it did not lead to structural damage. Bitcoin’s range-bound movement reflects a market still in transition rather than in decline. Institutional flows show caution, not capitulation, while long-term holders continue to watch BTC as a hedge against uncertainty.
The beginning of November brings a dense line of macroeconomic data that could influence the price action of Bitcoin in the short term. At the same time, the ongoing US government shutdown continues to affect data releases, leaving some key indicators delayed or missing. This combination could spark periods of high volatility in both directions as traders react to fragmented information and changing expectations.
The next few weeks will test whether stability can evolve into renewed momentum, but for now, the story of Bitcoin remains one of quiet resistance. If the key levels fail to hold and the price slides towards $90,000, it could also challenge Bitcoin’s reputation as digital gold. Such a move would put its annual performance well below previous cycles, raising new questions about its role as a long-term store of value.
Economic and Crypto Calendar for November 2025
- November 3 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
A leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction and may pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin.
- November 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)
One of the most closely watched U.S. economic reports. A weak figure could increase expectations for Fed easing and lift crypto sentiment.
- November 3 — ISM Manufacturing Prices (October)
Tracks input cost trends in the manufacturing sector. Rising prices could renew inflation concerns and influence Fed rate expectations.
- November 4 — JOLTS Job Openings (September)
Measures the number of job vacancies in the U.S. labor market. A strong reading signals tight employment conditions, while a decline could support expectations of slower economic growth and a more dovish Fed stance.
- November 5 — S&P Global Services PMI (October)
Provides insight into business activity in the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 points to expansion, supporting risk sentiment across traditional and crypto markets.
- November 5 — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)
A key measure of service-sector strength. Strong results could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, while weaker data may boost hopes for policy easing.
- November 13 — CPI (MoM) (October)
The monthly U.S. inflation report. A higher-than-expected increase could pressure risk assets and delay Fed rate cuts, while a soft print may support Bitcoin’s recovery.
- November 13 — CPI (YoY) (October)
The headline inflation figure. Year-over-year trends will guide investor expectations for monetary policy and could drive short-term volatility across crypto markets.
- November 21 — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)
The flash reading for U.S. manufacturing activity in November. Early signs of slowdown or recovery may influence risk appetite heading into year-end.
- November 21 — S&P Global Services PMI (November)
An advanced look at service-sector performance. Strong data could reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy, while weakness may renew pressure on the Fed to ease policy sooner.
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
