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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to experience cyclical booms and busts, resulting in a drawdown of up to 70% during the next market downturn, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital.
There will be a BTC retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years because traders do not understand the asset they are holding, Budki told Cointelegraph at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, UAE. He said:
“Bitcoin won’t lose its utility if it goes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets they don’t know and understand, they sell them first; that’s where the selling pressure comes in.”
Despite this, Budki still foresees that Bitcoin will reach $1 million or more per coin over the next 10 years and stated that user adoption will grow from a combination of price speculation and, more importantly, real-world BTC use cases.
Analysts, industry leaders and investors continue to forecast when Bitcoin will reach a seven-digit price and whether the market dynamics that have defined BTC cycles since its inception in 2009 will remain valid in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin white paper returns 17 as the first red October in 7 years appears for BTC
U Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is deadaccording to Arthur Hayes, market analyst and co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX.
Bitcoin’s price is influenced more by macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and money supply growth, and less by cyclical patterns, Hayes said.
Other analysts point to the growing institutional adoption and presence of these financial institutions as a stabilizing force which reduces price volatility and calms markets.
Financial institutions, including governments, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of digital asset treasury companies and cryptocurrency exchanges collectively hold more than 4 million BTC, nearly 20% of the total supply of Bitcoin, according to BitcoinTreasures.NET.
However, Seamus Rocca, the CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph that the four year cycle remains in play because investors currently see BTC as a risk asset, despite its value properties.
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