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Bitcoin entered its historically most significant month for gains – November – with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013 – which means that Bitcoin could exceed $160,000 this month if history rhymes.
However, a crypto analyst noted that many macroeconomic factors are also in play.
“I think seasonal charts matter a lot, but they have to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.
In the future, there is an expectation that the US Fed will also raise interest rates, and the US and China are working on a trade agreement; both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and US tariffs continue to add to the economic uncertainty.
Here’s a breakdown of some key developments to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.
US/China reducing trade tensions
A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday took place seen as a positive step towards the end of trade tensions between the United States and China.
Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “surprising”. Part of the talks included an agreement by Trump to cut tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing ending the fentanyl trade, resuming purchases of US soybeans and ending restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.
Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “very soon.”
Of Trump tariff threat against China was blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated in just 24 hours on October 11. crypto market he has struggled to recover since then.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow in its China Initiative, said CBC News that the meeting was more than a “pause” in the trade war, but it was far from over.
The US Fed to cut rates, end quantitative easing
It was just days ago that Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
The Fed’s next meeting date is set for December 10, 2025. Data from CME’s FedWatch – a tool used to measure expectations for a change in the Federal Reserve rate – shows that traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
Fed cuts are seen as bullish for Bitcoinas the lower cost of borrowing money has historically incentivized investors to trade riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this is the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1st. QT is the central bank’s balance sheet contraction process. The goal of QT is to cool an overheating economy and prevent inflation from rising too quickly.
The opposite of this, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more cash into the economy, and is seen as good for crypto, as part of that money flows into alternative assets.
The US government shutdown is extending
The US government shutdown will soon enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over a government spending plan.
Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is not dead, expect a 70% drop next drop: VC
On Thursday, Trump asked Republicans to abolish the “Senate filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block action by the majority, which they blame for the government shutdown.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE NUCLEAR OPTION, BREAK THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump he wrote on Social Truth.
The end of the closure was seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to several crypto ETFs, along with the critical advances of the crypto markets structure project, also known as the CLARITY Act.
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