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Tanzeel Akhtar
Journalist
Tanzeel Akhtar
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Bitcoin’s momentum has weakened dramatically, and the market has slipped into one of its most bearish phases of the year, according to the latest. CryptoQuant weekly report.
The sentiment deteriorated rapidly as Bitcoin passes dangerously close to the $100,000 level. The shift began after the “Big Liquidation” event on October 10, which drained the momentum to the upside and pushed several key indicators into bearish territory.
Spot demand contracted earlier in October, while stablecoin liquidity growth – a critical driver of market inflows – slowed significantly. Together, these factors have created a fragile environment in which the price of Bitcoin struggles to sustain significant support.
A market that is losing its grip on momentum
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index reflects the extent of the decline. Before October, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000, the index stood at a very optimistic reading of 80. That optimism quickly evaporated as Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 for the first time since June.
The index has now fallen to 20, indicating an extremely bearish environment. The sharp decline shows how quickly the market has shifted from aggressive buying to hesitation and caution, with fewer new inflows and weaker spot demand contributing to downward pressure.
Long term holders download to rare levels
One of the most concerning signals in the report is the behavior of long-term holders. During the past month, they sold about 815,000 BTC, marking their heaviest distribution since January 2024. This sale happened as Bitcoin pushed into the range of $118,000 to $121,000, a moment when spot demand had already begun to fade.
In the earlier stages of the cycle, strong demand from ETFs, institutional traders and retail buyers was enough to absorb heavy selling by long-term holders. That buffer is now gone. Instead, the combination of stable supply from long-term holders and weakened demand is placing a clear downward pressure on the market, increasing the risk of further price deterioration.
The profit remains strong, but the capitulation is absent
Profit realization remains high. On November 7, investors closed in about $3 billion in net profits, mirroring the aggressive selling seen in October. Despite the heavy profit-taking, the market has not yet shown signs of capitulation.
Realized losses remain extremely low, suggesting that holders are not panic selling even as price support weakens. This dynamic – strong profits, but minimal losses – indicates that the market has not formed a bottom. Historically, price plans only emerge after losses mount and weak hands exit the market, a pattern that has yet to emerge.
The Battle of the 365-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin’s current struggle centers on the 365-day moving average, which is near $102,000. This line served as the last level of support throughout the current bull cycle and was one of the last major indicators to turn bearish during the 2021-2022 transition into a prolonged decline.
Bitcoin has now dipped below this level several times – a warning sign not seen before in this cycle. If the price continues to close below the 365-day moving average, the risk of a deeper correction increases considerably.
Notes CryptoQuant that the next significant support areas lie significantly lower, suggesting that failure to recover from this moving average could accelerate a broader market decline.
Bitcoin is now at a critical point. With momentum fading, long-term holders selling heavily, and spot demand failing to keep pace, the market’s ability to stabilize depends heavily on whether Bitcoin can recover its 365-day moving average. The coming weeks could determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the start of a more significant correction.
