Bitcoin to Crash to $60,000? Top Analyst Highlights Grim Scenario

Bitcoin is at a critical technical crossroadsand the course of the cycle will be determined by what transpires over the next 24 to 72 hours. The 50-week simple moving average, a long-term trend indicator that usually distinguishes between transition tops and macro bull phases, is the primary level below. consideration. The probability that the top of the cycle has already happened increases dramatically to 60-70% if Bitcoin closes below the 50W SMA today.

Bitcoin’s Aggressive Cycle

The situation is dire: the 50-day moving average recently fell below the 200-day mark, and we have already seen a death cross. That signal is not insignificant, historically, it indicates changes in prolonged corrective phases. Timing is crucial. Bulls must now make an aggressive appearance if the cycle is still ongoing. Passive dip buying is no longer accepted; the market must firmly regain its structure.

The window is still open. The probability will be more than about 50/50 if Bitcoin it is able to rise above the 50W SMA at the end of next week. However, the longer the price remains below this limit, the more the market comes to accept that the top has already been reached. The next action becomes more predictable if this is the case. In the past, after a macro top, Bitcoin usually rises one last time towards the 200-day moving average, creating a lower high before the deeper trend begins.

Back to basics

Bulls will have a clear chance to upgrade their position if that possible move lasts several weeks. One thing, however, is constant in all cycles, regardless of how Q4 turns out: Bitcoin almost always returns to its 200-week SMA from the midpoint of the cycle, which is typically in the mid-term year.

This time, mid to late 2026 is when this forecast falls. This would likely put Bitcoin in the $60,000-$70,000 range, which is consistent with long-term accumulation areas and fair-value models given current valuations and historical curve trends.

Close below today’s 50W SMA – the top is probably in the 60-70% range. Claim next week – back to 50/50 scenario.

A further demonstration of the 200D SMA is probably in store. By 2026, the SMA 200W retest will be between $60,000 and $70,000.