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Social sentiment around the majors has deteriorated sharply in recent days, according to Santiment, with traders becoming noticeably defensive as prices continue to slide.
This type of fatigue typically appears near inflection points—not at the start of new downtrends—and the data is starting to reflect that.
“Bitcoin has dropped below $100K for the second time this month. Predictably, this has caused a wave of FUD and concerned social media posts from retail traders,” the company said. “Santiment’s sentiment screens now show bitcoin with an unusually flat bullish-to-bearish ratio, Ethereum with only a marginally positive skew, and XRP sitting at one of its most fearful readings of the entire year.”
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Historically, when retail flips negative on several large-cap assets at once, capitulation tends to follow, wiping out weak hands and resetting bids for larger players.
Onchain readings support a background perspective. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio fell to 0.476, a level that historically signals short-term market lows, according to CoinDesk. noted Wednesday.
The NUP report previously triggered price rebounds, with bitcoin experiencing double-digit percentage rallies after similar readings in several cases in 2024.
This turn in mood comes as the broader market remains under pressure. The total capitalization of crypto fell towards $3.47 trillion, extending a downward trend for a month.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted in an email to CoinDesk that while short-term attempts to form a bottom are visible, the demonstrations are still met with heavy selling, making for a classic signature of a medium-term correction rather than a structural break in the cycle.
Bitcoin’s slide toward $102,500 earlier (and now trading near $98,000) on Wednesday triggered another stream of realized losses among large portfolios that bought around $110,000.
But the data on the chain also show that these flows are absorbed by the new entrants, with the institutional positioning leaning cautiously at the end of the year. Sygnum’s latest survey reveals that 61% of institutions plan to increase their crypto exposure ahead of the anticipation of altcoin ETFs and regulatory developments in 2026.
Strategic flows add weight to that view. Strategy, now one of the largest public holders of Bitcoin, amassed 487 BTC in the past week at an average of $102,557, bringing its total stash to 641,692 BTC.
On the Ethereum side, exchange reserves fell to their lowest level since May 2024, signaling a medium-term positive trend that typically reflects accumulation in terms of distribution.
The market is still drifting lower, but the ingredients for a reflexive rebound are stacking up: negative sentiment, heavy long liquidation clusters behind the price, falling exchange balances, and sustained institutional buying.
Retail may be in retreat, but the biggest players appear to be preparing for the next stage — a setup that has historically preceded short, sharp reversals rather than a deeper capitulation.
