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For more than a decade, October has been one of Bitcoin’s the easiest months to be bullish.
Historically, it has delivered average returns of around 22.5%, helped by post-summer liquidity, year-over-year portfolio positioning, and, more recently, steady demand from US investment products.
As a result, confidence in that model has been high again this year. True to form, Bitcoin set a new record over $126,000 in the first week of the month, as traders quickly revive the familiar slogan “Uptober”.
However, a flash sell-off wiped out those early gains in a few days, and unlike technology stocks and other risk assets, Bitcoin has never recovered its value.
This resulted in the lowest closing month, the meme failing, and the market was reminded that slogans do not absorb supply.
Echoes of 2018
What makes this October remarkable is how much it rhymes with 2018.
At that time, October did not collapse as it only stopped rallying. Once the usual seasonal headwinds faded, November and December became much lower, with Bitcoin losing more than 36% in November alone.
The takeaway was simple: when a historically strong month fails to lift prices, the underlying weakness is already at play. This weakness may stem from excess supply, waning demand, or even tighter macroeconomic conditions.
This year brings a similar undercurrent. The calendar has not stopped working. Instead, the market came into October tired.
After a strong first three quarters, traders were heavily positioned, liquidity was spotty, and long-term holders began to take profits at any sign of strength.
Why did the price of Bitcoin fall in October?
The data on the chain explains most of why the price of Bitcoin struggled in October.
Data from the blockchain analytics platform Glass node showed that long term BTC holders since mid-July, they have steadily spent coins, increasing the sales made from about $1 billion a day to between $2 billion and $3 billion a day in early October.
It is noted:
“The filter by age cohort reveals that the 6m-12m holders have driven more than 50% of the recent selling pressure, especially during the last stages of the higher formation. Around the $126,000 ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); more than 5 times their prior base in 225.”
Crucially, this distribution was not a panic spike like previous capitulation events. It was gradual, persistent, selling in every show of strength.
According to the firm, many of the coins originated from wallets that were purchased for between $70,000 and $96,000, resulting in an average cost of nearly $93,000.
This suggests the move looks more like a profit after a strong year rather than a fear of a downturn.
At the same time, the poor performance of Bitcoin was aggravated by the fact that its buying side decreased significantly in October.
In its weekly report, the crypto analytical platform CryptoQuant noticed a notable slowdown in US investor appetite in the spot, ETF and futures markets following the late September rally.
In truth, ETF flows cooled significantly to less than 1,000 BTC/day, which was considerably lower than the average of more than 2,500 BTC/day seen at the beginning of major rallies this cycle.
In addition, spot exchange premiums narrowed, and the futures basis retreated.
Moreno noted that these were signs that the U.S. marginal buyer pulled back just as long-term holders stepped up their selling.
Meanwhile, the macro background has also amplified the drag.
This year was dominated by trade frictions-especially between the United States and China– and flare-ups in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve also continued to signal a restrictive policy stance, keeping global dollar liquidity tight.
Considering all this, the Kronos research platform framed the October pullback as a “liquidity strain, not a trend break”, noting that Bitcoin has always behaved as an asset relative to the flight to safety even when leveraged longs have been cleared.
What’s next for BTC?
The uncomfortable parallel for the bulls is that the last red October preceded a difficult year.
In 2018, the loss of seasonal support was followed by thinner liquidity, a more decisive long-term distribution of holders, and buyers waiting for several lower legs.
However, today’s market is healthier because the investor base is deeper, stablecoin liquidity is greater, and regulated products now provide a slower and more stable supply that simply did not exist seven years ago.
Considering this, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the current configuration as a market that is “recalibrating, not collapsing”, adding that the institutional accumulation will continue under the surface until Bitcoin keeps above the $107,000-$110,000 zone.
Even so, the October press changes the conversation. When Bitcoin can’t rally in the month it usually rallies, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls.
The last two months of the year are likely to be defined less by memes about Uptober and more by whether long-term spending by holders cools back toward $1 billion a day and whether US ETF flows pick up again.
If supply remains heavy and regulated supply remains light, 2025 could echo 2018 with a choppy and frustrating finish to the year. However, if the flows return and geopolitics calm, October may end up looking less like the beginning of a slide and more like a short, orderly handoff from the old holders to the new ones.
