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Crypto market lows are unlikely to form in the moments when many analysts and traders call one, according to the crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
“Be cautious when you see a widespread consensus forming on a specific price,” Santiment. he said in a report on Saturday, adding that “real funds often form when the majority expects prices to fall further.”
Santiment said this has recently emerged as a trending topic on social media after Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $95,000 on Friday amid a broader tech decline. “This suggests that many traders believe the worst is over,” Santiment said, arguing that historically such sentiments are often followed by more downside.
Crypto market participants often make calls that the market has bottomed when psychological price levels are violated, such as Bitcoin falling below $100,000.
Bitcoin sentiment slumps, positive comments fall to a one-month low
Despite the dip, prominent figures such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine president Tom Lee recently reiterated their predictions that Bitcoin could still rally to $200,000 or more by the end of the year.
Santiment also said that the ratio of positive to negative comments on Bitcoin is at its lowest point in more than a month.
“As the price of Bitcoin has fallen, its social dominance has grown to more than 40%, showing that it is the main topic of a very scary conversation,” said Santiment.
The sentiment platform added that many traders have pinned the recent fall in the price of Bitcoin on Strategy President Michael Saylor selling Bitcoin, with social media mentions of “Saylor” rising sharply as Bitcoin fell.
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows can be bullish
During an interview with CNBC on Friday, Saylor denied the reports that the company he was unloading some of his Bitcoin amid a flash crash in the asset’s price.
Meanwhile, Santiment said that the significant flows of Bitcoin ETFs in recent times may be a positive sign for the spot price of Bitcoin.
“Large ETF flows have often marked local price peaks, while significant flows have coincided with market lows, suggesting panic selling,” Santiment said.
Over the past three trading days, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.17 billion in outflows, according to to Farside.
On Thursday, spot Bitcoin ETF saw $866 million in net outflowswhich marks its second-worst day on record after the $1.14 billion in daily flows on February 25.
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