Does Bitcoin Power Law model still work in 2025 after S2F failed?

With S2F in the rearview mirror, the live power channel indicates that BTC it is about 20% below fair value, but ETF flows could push it to the extreme.

The implementation of Bitbo The model of Giovanni Santostasi puts the price near $109,700, the fair value near $136,100, the support near $48,300, and the resistance near $491,800, which frames the current cycle in a rising corridor derived from a power law adapted to the price over time.

The channel is constructed by running a linear regression of log (price) versus log (time since genesis), then duplicating that line in parallel to form upper and lower bounds that have historically contained cyclical extremes.

The result is a time-based composite curve with rails that move upward as time passes, making the model more of a location map than a point forecast.

The core claim is simple to evaluate in live markets. Bitcoin trades about 20 percent below the regression of the fair value and more than twice above the floor of the model, a place in the middle zone that contrasts with the tops and bottoms of the cycle before when the price tagged the resistance or support of the channel.

Parameterization used by BGeometry express the curve of the right value as P ≈ 1.0117 × 10 ^ -17 × (days from the genesis) ^ 5.82, with a floor commonly referred to about 0.42 times the curve, which is consistent with the gap present between the spot price and the lowest rail of Bitbo.

The specification includes historical drawdowns while allowing for late-cycle extensions to the upper band.

The logic behind this approach treats adoption as a power function of time and expects volatility to decline as the network matures, a property that appears as tight oscillations around the regression line over successive cycles.

Bitcoin maintains its power law path as ETFs rewrite the cycle

Recent flows help explain why the price is in the middle of the channel rather than at one extreme. Cryptocurrency exchange products (ETPs) attracted a record $5.95 billion in net inflows during the week ending October 4, 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of approx. $126,000next to a strong demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The next two weeks showed that the flows are not a one-way input. CoinShares recorded a swing to $3.17 billion in net flows, followed by a reversal to $513 million in net flows, including a single-week Bitcoin flow of $946 million.

In the last two days alone, $958 million has exited the US Bitcoin ETF, with $290 million leaving BlackRock on October 30.

That cadence is consistent with the power law framework, where transient demand increases or pockets of air push the price toward upper or lower rails for weeks, while the long-term trajectory is anchored to the time-based power curve. October’s highs were linked to the wave of discovery of ETF subscriptions, which are now a visible macro lever for crypto demand.

The question ahead, therefore, is not whether the structure of the law of power is still applied, but where in the channel Bitcoin will exchange on the next stage.

A base case path keeps the price oscillating around the regression, currently close to $136,100, with a damped amplitude if the property of volatility decay holds.

A bull-case path will see the continued ETF inflows and benign macro conditions pull the price towards the upper resistance, near $491,800 today, which the first cycles reached during the late stage courses.

A bear case scenario would arise from macro tightening, a regulatory shock, or a persistent flow of ETFs driving a retest of the lower rail near $48,300. This level has historically seen capitulation wicks before re-entering the channel.

These levels increase with time as the exponent in days from the genesis compounds. The rails are directional guardrails, not fixed targets.

For readers tracking the levels at a glance, the live model ranges are:

The debate on the choice of model is formed by the breakdown of the Stock-to-Flow approach, once popular.

PlanB’s S2F route requested $98,000 from November 2021 and $135,000 from December 2021, targets that have not been met.

The price then spent years below the S2F trajectory, an out-of-sample failure that weakened confidence in the use of a univariate stock-to-flow ratio to set deterministic targets.

Vitalik Buterin has criticized S2F to provide a false precision, and many analysts have identified methodological problems, including overfitting, the omission of demand and liquidity variables, and the treatment of halvings as step-wise valuation changes that do not account for the microstructure of the market.

Institutional researchers continue caution that S2F is not a reliable long-term pricing tool. That leaves S2F as a scarcity narrative rather than a forecasting model.

Power law adherents, by contrast, argue that cycle length and amplitude can be limited without hard dating results.

CryptoSlate he previously outlined broad windows in which Bitcoin would not support prices below about six figures after 2028 and could, at some point between 2028 and 2037, touch the seven-figure mark.

These are intervals, not calendar calls, and inherit the same caveats as any model that ignores political shocks or structural changes in market access.

The new structural change is the ETF flow, which functions as a demand valve that can overcome the marginal emission cuts that the halvings encode.

Sustained weekly spot inflows above $2 billion to $3 billion will increase the chances of an upper band test, while persistent flows increase the likelihood of a regression or retest of the floor.

Macro liquidity, including the path of rates, the dollar and central bank balance sheets, still takes center stage in determining whether the price will stay above the regression or stretch towards the lower rail. That macro overlay is absent in S2F and is only indirectly present in the power of law, which is why practitioners trace flows and politics alongside the channel.

The clarity of the method is crucial given the increasing use of the model in institutional bridges.

The power-law channel is built by taking daily BTCUSD closes, transforming it to log (price) versus log (time since genesis), fitting a simple linear regression as the right value curve, and then copying that line up and down in parallel to form resistance and support that historically includes the price.

The elegance lies in its production of a monotonically increasing frame, based on time with a visible margin of error, which, until now, has captured the extremes of the cycle without claiming to know the date or magnitude of future shocks.

The cost is that it does not mechanically incorporate the known drivers, such as ETF demand or liquidity cycles, which must be monitored to understand where the channel price is likely to reside in the short term.

For now, the live reading is live. The price is on a fifth below the regression, well above the floor, with ETF flows and macroeconomic conditions that determine whether Bitcoin tags the upper band or fades towards support before returning to the average.

The channel continues to climb over time, and the rails define the tradable map.