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Main takeaways:
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Bitcoin is set to end October in the red, breaking a six-year “Uptober” streak.
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Traders are divided, with some fearing a significant correction ahead, while others are also anticipating new highs in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end October in the red for the first time in seven years, with traders divided on whether BTC will continue the downtrend in November.
Bitcoin snaps “Uptober” streak
After six straight years of “Uptober” gains, Bitcoin is set to break the streak this year.
October is often referred to by that cute nickname because it has provided some of the best monthly returns for Bitcoin in the last decade, since 2013, with only two red Octobers, in 2014 and 2018.
This record was strengthened by six consecutive years of gains from 2019 to 2024.
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The tables are set to turn in 2025 as Bitcoin trades 3.35% lower in October, with only hours left until the end of the month.
“Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today or we will see our first red October closing in 7 years,” he said analyst Jelle in a post on X.
Losses in October were amplified by a mid-month flash crash triggered by US-China tariff threatsand the The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday did little to lift investor sentiment.
“October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” TraderAAG he said in an X post, adding:
“Crypto market has humbled many traders this month – momentum faded, confidence shaken.”
Crypto analyst Damus said that the volatility that Bitcoin experienced this month was “nothing out of the ordinary”, since October is historically the second best month of the year for BTC.
There is nothing “normal” about it #BTC Volatility
October is statistically the 2nd best month of the year for #BTC
This is the worst October since the 2018 bear market
and only 3rd October Red since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
– WE WILL GIVE CRYPTO (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025
November uncertain?
While some traders he said a red October is “just a setup for an even bigger November rally,” others say Bitcoin’s bull cycle has been shaken and could. be near the end.
The last time BTC ended October in the red was in 2018, and “November saw a brutal 36.57% drop.” he said analyst Crypto Rover in a post on Friday X, adding:
“Should we be worried this time?”
“What Does a Weak October Mean for Bitcoin?” author and analyst Timothy Peterson he asked in his latest post on X, adding that there is basically “no correlation between October and the following months”.
However, Bitcoin growth in Q4 usually slows after a weak October, Peterson added.
“The 3-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for strong Octobers, it’s 21%.
November is historically the best month for Bitcoin, with an average of 46% in 12 years since 2013. This makes the period between October and December the best quarter for BTC price movements, with average gains of 78%, according to CoinGlass data.
Looking at the last few years, Bitcoin rallied by about 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. The rally was more exponential in 2017 with gains of 480% between October 1st and December 1st.
Even in bear cycles, such as -42% of 2018 and -15% of 2022, the losses were outliers. But in any case, the last quarter of the year always provides significant movements.
If history is anything to go by, Bitcoin price action may reverse in November, grow to $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and business move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
